Monitor changing conditions throughout the day as wind forms small slabs in the alpine and rain weakens surface snow on shady mid-elevation slopes. Continue to use an abundance of caution around and below cornices.
Increasing winds Thursday afternoon will re-distribute the new snow and any upper elevation snow that is still available for transport. Expect easily triggered slabs along lee ridgelines. Although resulting avalanches will be small, they will be big enough to knock you down. Be cautious in complicated, or consequential terrain.
Mostly clear skies Wednesday night will give way to blustery conditions on Thursday. Precipitation is expected to be light to moderate with a couple inches of new snow in upper elevation terrain and some rain below ~5000 feet. Expect the snow surface to get sticky and quickly lose strength on slopes where rain falls on dry, cold snow.
Clear skies Wednesday night will refreeze the snow on sunny slopes. As a result, the most likely place to find a wet loose avalanche will be on shady, near treeline terrain where rain is weakening a snowpack not yet affected by spring sunshine.
(3/17/2021) Skier-triggered sluffs on a north aspect at 5600ft in Mazama Bowl. Similar slopes will produce loose wet avalanches on Thursday if they are rained upon.
The last several days have been pleasant and mild and today we rode powder on the shady aspects and corn in the sun -- one of those incredible days when it is spring on one side of the hill and winter on the other.
Thursday’s small storm is the beginning of a period of unsettled weather, which in the short term might make riding conditions less than optimal. Specifically, expect very firm conditions on exposed near and above treeline slopes and wet and sticky conditions on shady slopes that are getting rained on. In addition, this small storm will probably make the (already large) cornices a little bit bigger. Continue to give these features a wide berth along ridgelines, and within their run-out zones.
Scattered glide cracks are opening due to the warmer weather and snow settlement. Rain Thursday could speed the process up. A very large glide avalanche late last week along the Cascade River Road (see photo below) is a reminder that these features may be dangerous. It's always best to avoid slopes with active cracks and don’t hang out in the areas below!
During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources. Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.
