Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The combination of new storm snow on a weak faceted snowpack is a good recipe for avalanches. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist today with human triggered persistent slab avalanches likely near and above treeline.  It's possible we could see natural avalanches during the day.  Avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees and be aware of being on or connected to avalanche slopes above you as it may be possible to trigger an avalanche from below.   

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The big concern today is going to be newly formed slabs that rest on top of the weak faceted snowpack that existed before this storm.  It won't take much-added weight to stress these fragile weak layers. Assume that any avalanche triggered today will happen in a deeper weak layer and has the potential to bury you.    

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.  Avoid being on or beneath avalanche path runouts as we may see avalanches that are able to run long distances or be triggered from below.  

    Various faceted weak layers exist in the snowpack near and above treeline.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1

    6 to 8 inches of snow overnight fell on a variety of different surfaces from near-surface facets to crusts and slabs and most likely will not be bonding well to these old surfaces.  With an increase in west winds and additional snowfall today the storm snow should be able to stiffen into cohesive slabs.  Although you may be able to get these storm slabs to run just in new snow, the more likely scenario is that an avalanche will start or step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  

    Storm snow that isn't a cohesive slab may act like a Loose Dry snow avalanche that is able to easily entrain the cohesion-less snow on the ground from before the storm.  This snow could run fast and easily knock you off your feet.  Avoid terrain traps like gullies where this snow could easily collect. 

Avalanche Discussion

It's nice to see a much-needed return to winter, however with that will come an increase in avalanche danger today. As of 5 AM, 6 to 8 inches of snow has fallen overnight with about .5 - .7" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  An additional 2 to 4 inches are expected during the day into this evening.  Moderate west winds with gusts approaching 40 mph are expected by early afternoon. It's easy to get excited to want to go ski the new powder as we come out of a prolonged high-pressure period.  Today won't be the day to push things, as the snowpack will need time to adjust to the added weight.  Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential.

It's not that complicated of an avalanche problem today.  Cohesive slabs from the new snow and an increase in west wind have added weight that will stress the weak faceted snow in our snowpack. These cohesive slabs have also been the missing ingredient needed for slab avalanches. Many slopes before this storm consisted of cohesion-less faceted weak snow throughout but lacked a cohesive slab on top needed to be able to communicate propagation for a slab avalanche. 

It's possible we may hit a tipping point of too much weight for these faceted layers to handle and see some natural avalanches.  It might also just take the weight of you on a slope to get a weak layer to collapse and create an avalanche. Some avalanches may release on or near the ground bringing with it the entire snowpack. If you are heading out into the hills, good flat powder will be the ticket today!

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