Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Increasing glide activity over the last week will accelerate due to the unseasonably warm weather to start the weekend. Avoid lingering below steep cutbanks or slopes with large open cracks where the entire season's snowpack could fail unexpectedly. 

Avalanche problems

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Large natural glide avalanches are possible in isolated areas, primarily on slopes where large cracks have already formed. Small glide avalanches are possible in specific areas such as steep, unsupported slopes with underlying bedrock.  A small D1 (SSE, 4600 ft) glide avalanche failed during the day on Thursday and covered half of the Hurricane Ridge road. Glide cracks have increased during an unusual January period with 11 days of mostly above-freezing weather. Water has drained and lubricated the base of the snowpack, creating spring-like hazards months ahead of schedule.  Limit your exposure to unsupported slopes or areas where cracks are forming in the terrain. 

    (1/13/2022)

    Glide crack on a road cut near Hurricane Ridge

     

    Photo: Sam Siemens-Luthy

Avalanche Discussion

Hurricane Ridge received 0.42" of rainfall Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Crusts formed on all aspects by Friday morning, following 16 hours of below-freezing temperatures. Temperatures at the Ridge reached 41F during the afternoon, likely softening SW-S-SE aspects.

It looks increasingly like April at Hurricane Ridge and the additional hazards on Saturday ring of springtime:

  1. Challenging travel exists during the morning hours at all elevations. Make sure you can self-arrest before crossing a slope.
  2. Large cornices remain a hazard as warm temperatures continue to weaken them. Give them a wide birth on the ridges as you travel and don't linger on the slopes beneath them.
  3. You can trigger small wet loose avalanches on steep SW-S-SE slopes once the crusts break down. These avalanches are primarily a concern near terrain traps where they could push you into rocks, trees, creek beds, or over a cliff.

On Thursday, observers noted a 2-inch crust on northerly aspects with the crusts breaking down during sunshine on southerly aspects. Wet loose avalanche activity had mostly subsided as the snowpack has adjusted to sustained mild temperatures.

The snowpack has taken a major hit from the prolonged warming. While the average snowpack is around 45-50", you'll now find many bare and grassy patches on sun-exposed slopes. Wind-drifted northerly aspects still have 6 ft or more of snow in many places. Below the crusts, expect to find plenty of rounded grains. We are not tracking any layers of concern at this time.

2021-22 Forecast Schedule: Avalanche danger ratings will be issued for the Olympics every Friday through Sunday and during mid-week holidays. During the week when the Hurricane Ridge road is closed, forecast information will be updated daily to include expected conditions and relevant travel advice under the No Rating label.

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