Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The riding conditions are slowly improving out there with more new snow but that is also increasing our concern for triggering avalanches.  The buried surface hoar from last week is intact on all aspects but due to the light accumulation of low density snow over it so far we are not yet seeing natural avalanches.  Areas of windslab and deposition are the outliers where the surface hoar is buried deeper and under a firmer slab.  These windslabs are patchy so be alert.  It seems the Selkirks have had more windeffect than the Cabinets.  The clues of instability are starting to appear, shooting cracks, firmer snow conditions, and warming temperatures by Sunday.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Areas of windslab or deeper depostion from the wind will be the areas you will want to avoid today and into this weekend.  The wind is not forecast to be a big factor in the upcoming weather but the surface snow is light and some wind is forecast.  Windslabs are patchy out there so pay attention.  A slight change in hardness at the surface can be all it takes to pull out a small slab and get you sliding out of control.  Lower angles slopes will be your best bet today and this weekend.   The firm underlying crust is still a tricky slide layer that will be difficult to self arrest on if you get going out of control.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    On northerly aspects around 6,000 feet we have about 6-8 inches of new, low density snow overlying the buried surface hoar layer.  On terrain steeper than 35 degrees you could initiate some sluffs in the low density snow and this could be enough stress to trigger the surface hoar weak layer.  The other feature that had my attention, since I was diggin my pit directly above it, was a convex roll.  I think you could triger a small slab on steep rollovers, especially with the couple more inches of snow we got last night.  I was seeing some cracks starting to propagate in the new snow over the surface hoar weak layer and this had me staying well away from that convex roll where the snow tends to be weaker.  On a south aspect the new snow was light but not as deep and we found some good skiing on a 28-30 degree slope back to the sleds.  The snow was a little deeper in the trees but we stayed on the edge of a small opening where the snow was still light.  As we get more snow, and possibly some wind, this safe zone may change.

    Low angle south aspect provided safe turns yesterday.

Avalanche Discussion

What we're experincing with our snowpack and the weather right now is building a house of cards.  As we add more snow the hazard will increase of bringing down the house, the snowpack in this instance.  The good thing is that we are building up the new snow over the surface hoar weak layer very slowly, which is good.  Slow accumulation allows the snowpack to adjust to the load and hopefully work on some bonding in the weak layer.  However, the cold temperatures through the weekend will alow the weak layer to persist and the new snow will stay low density.  This means we can build up the house of cards pretty high.  But as the snow over that nasty surface hoar weak layer gets deeper the risk of failure gets higher, and the temptation to get after those powder stashes gets greater.  Today will be a test of how that weak layer is reacting to additonal snow load.  Look for the clues and determine where the weakest snowpack exists so you can avoid it when we get more snow or wind.  This is also a time to fine tune your riding.  Don't hit convex rollovers in steeper terrain and try to avoid obvious pockets of windslab.  This could be the diference of safe riding all day or dealing with an avalanche burial or a collision with an immovable object.

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