Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Extreme winds overnight scoured and redistributed snow in upper and middle elevations where our prime avalanche terrain exists. Anticipate a mix of firm, stubborn wind slabs in areas where this snow is deposited. These slabs are most likely to be found beneath the ice across the Headwall in Tuckerman Ravine or beneath the rollover and ice bulge in Main Gully in the Gulf of Slides. The slabs are likely to be stubborn in most areas but specific terrain features like convex rolls, or slabs of ice or rock, or even a thin spot over softer snow may be more sensitive to a human trigger on foot or ski. Natural avalanches are unlikely, though triggering a large avalanche is possible today. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. Avalanche danger is MODERATE in wind loaded areas.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Winds have redistributed the light, upslope snow fall that fell at higher elevations since early in the week. Winds reached hurricane force overnight from the west-northwest which typically builds firm wind slabs from 1F to P hardness. The most recent snowfall was very low density and transported easily so you are likely to encounter softer drifts at treeline and in protected areas. Harder slabs will exist in more wind exposed areas where snow has loaded into direct lee terrain features and crossloaded onto others. The larger, firmer slabs will be more stubborn to a human trigger but could be on the larger side if triggered (D2.5). Use the terrain to your advantage when travelling to avoid likely trigger points such as thin spots near the bottom edge and near rocks. Assess these slabs carefully for signs of instability such as cracking, collapsing or a drum-like surface that indicates softer, weaker snow beneath. Reduce your exposure to apron-shaped deposits of snow that accumulate below steep gullies and cliffs.. These have a history of growing large after wind events. Smaller and more reactive slabs may be tucked into more wind sheltered locations lower in the terrain and on steep, narrow drainages at mid elevations.

    Softer wind slabs such as this may be found in areas not exposed to the higher wind speeds that occurred at higher elevations. Seek lower angled slopes if you see evidence of cracking like this.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Continuously cold temperatures and crusts have driven a faceting problem in areas of thinner snowpack. Another small slab that was triggered yesterday outside our forecast area is a reminder that this issue still exists, though so far only small avalanches (D1) have occurred on this layer. Natural avalanche activity has occurred at lower elevations over a week ago with reports of whumpfing and collapsing continuing in lower and middle locations with a thinner snowpack. Faceted snow has been observed more locally beneath the hard 157mph crust within our forecast area at 4200’ but is likely to be deeply buried in wind loaded terrain where it is more likely to be bridged over by stiff slabs above.

    You can also find faceted snow around the Christmas rain crust though that layer is much more deeply buried at mid and upper elevations. This problem was identified near the ground at lower & mid elevations with a thinner snowpack. Snowfall or a skier/climber could overload these weak layers, initiating an avalanche in the right conditions. Look and listen for collapsing and whumpfing.

    This small avalanche occurred yesterday in Grafton Notch on a slab of ice though no other details are available.

Avalanche Discussion

The nickel and diming type of snowfall that our recent weather pattern brings can create some of the best skiing experiences but also can generate some surprising wind slabs. Don’t be lulled into complacency due to the apparent stubbornness of the slabs. Good visibility and moderating wind speeds should allow for careful observations and good micro-route planning to reduce your exposure to the hazard. When you find soft snow on steep slopes and drainages, you have likely found the most reactive wind slab problem so manage your terrain accordingly.

 

It’s important to realize that danger ratings, and the terrain rose, locates and rates the areas with the highest frequency and greatest extent of the given avalanche problem. Even more important is to realize that the problem is likely to exist in other areas too. Any avalanche problem is subject to multiple variables that contribute to its development. It is also true that you could find an avalanche problem in the field that does not show up on the list of avalanche problem types here. Avalanche problem types are listed here in order of importance and meant to help guide your route planning. Ultimately, conditions on the ground will determine the actual danger that you face. Accurate assessment of the snow and, more importantly, the terrain that it rests on is the most important skill that you can develop. Today will be a challenging day to make these assessments due to cold temperatures and strong wind. When avalanche problems are complicated or uncertain, as they are today, seek simpler terrain. Wind sheltered, lower angled slopes and terrain without convex rolls are examples. 

 

From January 30 to February 6, fifteen avalanche fatalities occurred in the US along with many close calls. This was the deadliest week for avalanche fatalities in more than 100 years. The reason for the spike is unclear, but experts looking at this suggest a combination of factors that include a particularly dangerous snowpack across the US and the increased number of users. One important detail is that all of the victims were experienced backcountry users, not people venturing into avalanche terrain for the first time. Given the events this past week, consider taking a minute today to read about the accidents and reflect on your own decision making when in avalanche terrain. If anything, we can all learn something which hopefully influences better outcomes in the future.  

 

A complete incident analysis and report of the fatal avalanche accident that occured in the Ammonoosuc Ravine on February 1 is available here. 

 

Information on the recent US avalanche fatalities can be found here.

 

An interview with Simon Trautman of the National Avalanche Center can be found here. 

 

Thanks to everyone for the great observations. The recent reports of faceting around the range have been very helpful. Please keep them coming. 

 

Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here. 

 

Listen to the weekly MWAC Outreach Podcast provided by Ski The Whites. Discussions include snowpack information, weekend outlook, and general avalanche related info. 

 

Thursday, February 11 @ 7PM - Patagonia Films Event - Solving for Z

In this film, IFMGA Mountain Guide Zahan Billimoria explores his relationship with risk and reward in the mountains where stunning cinematography and engaging storytelling make this film truly stand out.  This event is FREE and we are excited to host Zahan live at the end of the showing to answer some of your questions live! 

The Harvard Cabin is open for camping only with no entry allowed inside the cabin. There is no access to the breezeway at HoJos.

Please Remember:

  • Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
  • Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

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