Avalanche forecast

East Cabinet Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snowpack is showing improved stability over the last week. There is still surface hoar lurking out there that may be reactive in some locations buried 1-3 feet deep in the snowpack.  Human triggered avalanches will remain possible in steep terrain with open timber at tree-line being the most concerning spot to watch out for. With moderate southwest winds and fresh snow it is also likely that you will find some thin storm slabs developing on leeward aspects.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    They call them persistent because they go away slowly, which is why I have to keep talking about them for extended periods of time. Weak layers buried 1-3 feet deep in the snowpack. Ice crusts, facets and the notorious surface hoar! All of these are potential problems to be wary of, the most concerning for me is the buried surface hoar. This crystal layer is becoming less reactive as it is pressed into the snow above and below it. I think the Purcells will continue to be the most likely area to trigger an avalanche on this layer right now. Be wary in steep and open timber, this is where it will be preserved and possibly sensitive to a human trigger. Right now you won't know if it's present at your location unless you stop and dig into the snow and look for that thin grey line! 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Area wide we are picking up 2-5" of snow. This fresh snow combined with some incoming southwest winds will likely form thin and reactive slabs in locations below ridgelines and steep, cross-loaded gullies. I expect these slabs to stay fairly thin but they may be enough to get your attention.

Avalanche Discussion

Lets talk details for a bit. Looking back at the weather this past week we have endured some cold temperatures and a few decent shots of snow. These cold temperatures make for a slow healing process and will often drive moisture up in the snowpack creating more and larger facets near crust layers. With this weather our buried surface hoar layer is showing a decrease in reactivity based on observations earlier this week. In the Cabinets, conditions are making a slow but steady progress towards stability. In the Purcells I would continue to sprinkle in some extra caution when making terrain choices as the weak layers are closer to the surface and likely to have more faceting near the January 13th rain crust. Another condition to ponder in the Purcells is the fact that the rain crust is thinner and provides less of a bridge over the weak layers. With the cold weather we had last week you may see an increase in weak, sugary snow below the crust layer in that corner of our world. 

Looking forward this weekend conditions won't change much until Sunday when we are predicted to see another "atmospheric river" flow into the area. Current predictions are calling for a significant amount of moisture from Sunday through Monday with possible rain up to 5,000' in elevation. So, if you are heading out on Monday, be ready to get a little wet and anticipate a rise in avalanche danger with heavy snowfall and warm temperatures.

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