Avalanche forecast

Abajos

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, mid and upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E and human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas.

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on low elevation northerly aspects and on mid and upper elevation slopes facing the south side of the compass where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.

It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Blowing and drifting snow has formed new wind slabs on leeward slopes that face primarily NW through E, but the gusty, erratic behavior of the winds may have deposited snow on a variety of aspects. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of terrain features such as sub ridges, gully walls, and rock outcroppings. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added stress to older slabs on top of a buried persistent weak layer and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 2'-3' deep are possible. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes, especially those that face the north side of the compass.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    A classic setup of strong snow over weak snow is developing on upper elevation, northerly aspects that retained snow from October. This October snow has become loose, weak, and sugary, or as we say, faceted. This faceted snow has formed a persistent weak layer at the base of the snowpack. Recent and wind drifted snow has formed a dense slab on top of this weak snow creating an unstable situation, and human triggered avalacnhes up to 2' deep are likely on steep, northerly facing slopes at mid and upper elevations.

    Photo illustrates a cohesive slab from the Dec 10 storm sitting on top of loose, weak, sugary faceted snow from October.

Snow and Weather

Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links.

NWS Weather Forecast.

Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')

Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')

The mountains picked up another 5" at 9000' yesterday. We'll see a lull in the action today as the shortwave trough moves eastward this morning. Today look for mostly cloudy skies, a slight chance for snow showers, and increasing southwesterly winds blowing in the 10-20 mph range with gusts to 30 mph along ridge tops. High temps will be in the low teens. The next system will move into the area on Thursday, with the best chance for significant snow Thursday night into Friday.

Snowpack

Snow totals are up to between 12" and 15" since Friday night with locally higher amounts at upper elevations. Coverage prior to this storm was quite thin with most sun and wind exposed slopes still showing lots of grass and occasional patches of bare ground. Northerly facing slopes above about 9500' have held snow since October, and this old snow has formed a weak, sugary, faceted layer at the base of the snowpack and this is where the trouble is. Recent and wind drifted snow has formed a dense slab over top of this weak, sugary snow and human triggered avalanches on steep, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E are likely. On slopes facing W and SE you may find unstable deposits of wind drifted snow. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.

Matthew Cozart was up over the weekend and he reported wild, windy weather and unstable avalanche conditions. Read his observation here.

General Announcements

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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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