Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Highlights

A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep, mid and upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E and human triggered avalanches are likely in these areas.

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on low elevation northerly aspects and on mid and upper elevation slopes facing W and SE where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.

Most S-SW facing terrain has generally LOW danger.

It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    On northerly aspects, fresh deposits of wind drifted snow have formed over top of a dense slab, 2'-3' thick, that exists on a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets. Over the past two weeks, these slabs have grown increasingly stubborn to release and I'm uncertain whether this new load is enough to re-awaken this persistent weak layer. But to be sure, any avalanche triggered on these weak, facets would be deep and dangerous and steep slopes facing NW through E are best avoided until we see how they react to the coming snow over the next several days.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Blowing and drifting snow has formed new wind slabs on leeward slopes that face primarily NW through E, with some cross-loading possible on W and SE facing slopes. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added stress to older slabs on top of a buried persistent weak layer and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 2'-3' deep are possible. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes, especially those that face the north side of the compass.

Special Announcement

Road Conditions: Expect to find a few inches of new snow with areas of drifting.

Grooming: Matt is headed up this morning for some Christmas grooming!

Recent Activity

No new avalanches have been reported since last week's storm event. Here is the current avalanche list.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 5" 72 Hour Snow 5" Base Depth in Gold Basin 26" Wind SW 15-20 G30 Temp 23F

We managed to wring 5" of dense snow out of the last storm system along with copious amounts of wind! The Pre Laurel Peak wind station appears to be rimed up and has been down since yesterday morning but wind stations throughout the region reported strong southerly winds averaging 20-30 mph with regular gusts into the 40's. Today look for partly cloudy skies with a lingering chance for light scattered showers in the morning, breezy SW winds, and high temps in the low 20's. Snow showers should again develop Saturday night into Sunday with 3"-6" possible by Sunday night. For the long term, a broad trough will dominate the western U.S. over the upcoming week with our next best chance for snow on Tuesday.

Snowpack

Strong SW winds and 5"-6" of dense new snow have created fresh wind slabs 10"- 12" deep on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features, primarily on mid and upper elevation slopes facing NW through E. In these same areas, an older, dense slab, 2'-3' thick exists over weak, October facets. I'm uncertain if this recent, wind drifted snow has provided enough of a load to re-activate this buried persistent weak layer, but it is possible that a triggered wind slab could result in a deeper and much more dangerous avalanche. Until we can get a better feel for how the new snow has affected things, I would avoid steep, northerly aspects, especially where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.

Overall snow cover remains quite thin and rocks, stumps, and deadfall continue to pose hazards.

Weather Links

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

Storm Totals in Gold Basin

Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

NWS Weather Forecast

General Announcements

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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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