Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The Avalanche Hazard in the West Central Mountains is Moderate.   Human triggered avalanches remain possible on recent buried weak layers.  Yesterday's snow has formed a sensitive slab in wind loaded and protected areas that is resting on weak suface hoar, and is sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider as we were able to trigger easily Saturday with skis. Triggering Persistent Slab Avalanches 2-3 feet deep are still possible, even though they are getting harder to trigger they have great consequences.

If triggered, these weak layers have the ability to spread out and propagate quickly over large areas as weve seen in 4 human triggered avalanches in 2 weeks. Expect increasing avalanche hazard as 1-2 feet of new snow begins to pile up tonight through Tuesday with gusty Southwest winds. Your best and safest choice in the mountains right now is to AVOID slopes steep enough to slide. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3

    Several weak layers exist within our snowpack.  Surface hoar, near-surface facets, density changes caused by wind and temperature fluctuations, grauple, sun and rain crusts...you name them, we have them.  Not all of these layers are found in all areas, several of them may be found in one area.  ALL of them should give you reason for concern and a healthy suspicion of the snowpack.

    Yesterday's snow formed our most recent persistent slab about 6 inches deep that was sensitive enough to tigger an avalanche on skis: it easily popigated out about 150 feet from our skis on the ridge touring out to Sgts Mtn Saturday and ran about 200 vertical feet, then with one stomp I was able to trigger the North aspect about 200 feet wide by 200 vertical veet. Previously buried surface hoar near 75cm/30in is resting just above the rain crust that was buried on 1/26.  This layer is incredibly reactive in some areas and not present in others which is a trend that add uncertanty. Steep slopes in wind-protected or wind-loaded, shady terrain is where you are most likely to find it.  This is the layer that has been producing human triggered avalanches for almost 2 weeks.  

    The most repeated message from Avalanche Centers across the Western US right now is "avoid steep slopes", with human triggered avalanches and avalanche fatalities continuing to stack up, pay attention to your slope angles and keep an eye on your partners.  

     

     

     

     

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterdays light snow had enough wind behind it to develop 6-12 inch wind slabs on exposed and leeward terrain during the afternoon. Wind slabs  are going to be growing Monday and Tuesday as Southwest winds pick up and more snow impacts our area. Watch for signs on the snow surface of sculpting and loading...cracking and whoomphing  or hollow noises are red flags.  Local terrain can influence incoming wind and load and cross load slopes in strange ways. 

    Skiers reported cracking and wind slabs developing on Jug Mountain Saturday February 13th.

Avalanche Discussion

 

2021 Virtual Silent Auction Fundraiser February 14 @ 8:00 am - February 20 @ 9:00 pm

This is our major fundraiser for the 2021 season.  In lieu of holding an in person event, we are having a silent auction that begins February 14 and will run all week with final bids closing at 9 pm on Saturday February 20th.  Our fundraising goal is $5000.  This will go to additional forecasts in 2022, continued maintenance of our beacon training park, fund the future forecasters scholarship program, continued maintenance of the granite mountain weather station, and provide avalanche education to the community. Click here for more information

 

***Weak layers are fairly widespread across our advisory area right now within the upper snowpack.  Skiers and motorized users triggered large avalanches in our advisory area and across the region last week on a layer of buried surface hoar.  

Yesterday's snow formed our most recent persistent slab about 6 inches deep that was sensitive enough to tigger an avalanche : it easily popigated out about 150 feet from our skis on the ridge touring out to Sgts Mtn Saturday and ran about 200 vertical feet, then with one stomp with a ski I was able to trigger the North aspect about 200 feet wide by 200 vertical feet. 

In our Advisory area, we have not gotten any reports of human triggered avalanche incidents since last Saturday, but the weak layers in the snowpack are still producing test results that indicate capability of producing large avalanches if you do trigger them. With incoming added snowload, the probability of triggering all buried weak layers as well as the destructive power of avalanches increases.

The last 2 weeks have produced more recreational avalanche fatalities than ever recorded across the Western U. S.  Statistically speaking we have been very lucky in the PAC advisory area.  Give the snowpack the respect it deserves right now and don't become a statistic.   Check out this article from Avalanche Canada on "Scary Moderate" conditions, it does a great job explaining why we are seeing so many avalanches under Moderate Hazard. 

If you see or trigger avalanche activity, please take the time to snap a picture and note the approximate elevation and aspect, you can submit an observation on our website. Getting your info helps forecasters and other users get a better picture of the conditions throughout our mountains. If you have trouble using our observations page, please email us at: [email protected].,

*Also, Please be mindful of other users, and where you are at. There are closures for motorized travel in and around the local ski areas, Granite Mtn, and other areas throughout our region.

***Check out the Winter Travel Map to find out where you can shred on your sled or moto.