Danger is expected to increase with forecast snow and wind. As always, and especially when forecast confidence is low, it's important to supplement this forecast with your own observations. Please post your obs to the MIN.
Weather Forecast
Light snowfall is expected for Thursday and Friday with 5-10cm of accumulation each day accompanied by moderate to strong southwesterly alpine winds and freezing levels at valley bottoms. Snowfall and winds should ease off with a clearing and cooling trend for Saturday.
Avalanche Summary
Recent reports include a natural Size 2 storm slab avalanche on a steep fan below a large alpine face in the Glacier Creek area. Check out the MIN report for for details including a photo.
Snowpack Summary
Recent reports suggest average snowpack depth is 80-150cm in the alpine and 60-100cm at treeline. The snowpack below treeline remains below threshold for avalanches, but watch out for early season hazards such as hidden rocks, stumps, and open creeks. Up to 40cm of recent storm snow is settling into a cohesive slab over a hard crust. This crust is the primary weakness of concern and is expected to become increasingly reactive as the slab above settles and stiffens. Southerly winds have also formed very touchy wind slabs on lee features below ridetops in exposed terrain. Although conditions have been reported as being quite good, remember that an early season snowpack is inherently weak and requires thorough investigation before stepping out into bigger terrain.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.