Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue.  Numerous parties yesterday reported triggered slides or widespread collapsing, highlighting how tender the snowpack is.   On steep, shady slopes that haven't already avalanched, it will be easy to trigger one today.   You can also trigger avalanches remotely from below the slope.   Collapses and shooting cracks are red flags warning you to stay on slope angles less than 30 degrees.   

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    On steep slopes that haven't already avalanched, you can easily trigger soft slabs about a foot thick over buried surface hoar, facets, and faceted crusts.  Evidence of the problem is widespread and blatantly clear: in the past four days, there have been dozens of natural and human triggered avalanches reported from all but the sunniest aspects.  Be wary of traveling below steep, connected slopes: many of these avalanches were triggered remotely from low angle terrain.   Thus far, the problem has been gracious enough to provide consistent and clear feedback to travelers via collapses, shooting cracks, and triggered slabs.  As these slabs become stiffer and the snowpack settles, feedback will become less consistent, and not all dangerous slopes will give you fair warning.  Careful terrain selection and snowpack evaluations are necessary to avoid trouble today.  

Avalanche Discussion

I keep hoping we'll see signs of the snowpack quieting down, but it's simply not happening yet.  Yesterday, five separate parties around our forecast area submitted observations of widespread collapses or skier triggered slides, some of which were remotely triggered (See video).  Read this observation of a close call yesterday in nearby Marble, just northwest of our forecast area.  Since the fragile and widespread weak layers were buried by 1 to 2 feet of snow over the weekend, there have been over 160 natural and human triggered avalanches reported to the CBAC. This observation illustrates the extensive cycle.   Yesterday's 4" to 7" kept the pressure on a snowpack that is still teetering.  The new snow is also helping to fill the hundreds of bed surfaces that litter the backcountry. Slopes that have already avalanched, or slopes that face south or southwest, are offering safer travel right now.   In the Northwest Mountains, the slabs are thicker from favored snowfall, yet we expect there was a more widespread flush across that forecast zone.  In the Southeast Mountains, slabs are thinner but more slopes likely hang in the balance.  Either way, if you find yourself eying a pristine-looking pitch that isn't scarred by crowns and recent avalanche debris,  expect it to slide if it is steeper than 35 degrees and faces the northern or eastern halves of the compass.  Move on to a lower angle slope and enjoy the powder! In the words of the great avalanche guru, Yoda: "Patience you must have my young Padawan."

Thank you to everyone for sharing your observations recently. They are a tremendously valuable resource for our forecasts, and they will continue to be helpful as we move forward with this challenging snowpack.  

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