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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 19th, 2014–Feb 20th, 2014

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Purcells.

We're moving from a storm slab problem to a persistent slab problem. Check out this blog post for thoughts on the current situation and strategies for the next the chapter.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: The last of the heavy hitting storms has left the province. A quick hitting pulse racing down from the NW will cross through the region Thursday leaving some very light density snow in its convective wake. A serious eastern pacific ridge brings clearing skies this weekend. Too early to say how long its reign will last. Thursday: Freezing Level: 700m; Precip; 1/5mm - 1/8 cm; Wind: Mod, W | Strong W at ridgetop.Friday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precip: Trace; Wind: Light, NW | Mod W/NW at ridgetopSaturday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precip: Nil; Wind: Light

Avalanche Summary

An ongoing avalanche cycle continues to produce natural avalanches to size 3.5. A group of skiers triggered a size 2.5 avalanche while walking along a ridgeline in the northern potion of the region Friday. While the amount of activity is beginning to taper, large avalanches continue to be reported.

Snowpack Summary

The never ending storm has produced 60 - 120 cm of total snowfall across the region which is settling into a cohesive slab that averages a 40 - 90 cm in depth. This slab rests on a nasty persistent weak layer (Late Jan/Early Feb.) surface hoar/facet/crust combo that was formed during the month of cold clear weather. Field observations continue to report easily triggered sudden planar failures on this interface in snowpack tests. Large settlements / "whoomphs" have been reported at all elevations. Large natural avalanches have been widespread and destructive. The persistent weak layer under all the storm snow is incredibly pervasive in the region. I expect touchy conditions to remain in place longer than we're normally accustomed to. Ongoing strong winds out of the SW and W have loaded lee aspects and damaged snow at all elevations, but the effect is most prevalent at and above treeline. More strong winds in the forecast are expected only to add to this problem.Weak basal facets exist in some areas, but triggering has now become unlikely. For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.