Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

The heatwave continues and the avalanche danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE on Sunday at all elevations.  Start and finish your tours early while the danger is lower and choose more conservative terrain as surface crusts thaw throughout the day.   Unusually warm temperatures spurred numerous dangerous wet avalanches on Saturday. Conditions will only get worse on Sunday following another poor refreeze.  Stay away from steep terrain if you are sinking past your ankles into wet, mushy snow.   

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    In steep, sunbaked terrain, the threat of natural and triggered wet avalanches will increase as the snow becomes wet and slushy on all but the shadiest aspects.  In terrain where the snowpack is weak and saturated, wet loose avalanches are gouging deep into the snowpack and entraining dangerous amounts of wet debris.  Avoid traveling on or below steep terrain where you find more than about 6" of wet, mushy snow.  Be especially careful above trees, cliffs, and gullies where even small sluffs can cause harm.  Obvious signs of wet loose avalanches include rollerballs, pinwheels, or if you start sinking deep into a saturated snowpack. Move to colder aspects or lower-angle terrain before the snow gets hot and mushy. 

    4/2: Debris from a skier triggered wet loose avalanche that gouged into weak and wet snow.

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Several large and dangerous wet slabs released on Saturday due to intense warming and meltwater draining into buried weak layers.  Another poor refreeze and continued melting on Sunday will only exacerbate the problem.  Avoid traveling on or below hot, sunbaked slopes, especially later in the day.  The safest time to travel on steep avalanche terrain is early in the morning, and only if the snow surface is frozen solid and supportive under your feet.  You've outstayed your welcome in avalanche terrain if you get off your sled or skis and sink past your ankles into wet snow.  

    4/3: A large wet slab triggered by a wet loose avalanche on Mt. Bellview

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    This past week, cornice falls have produced a handful of large avalanches. Overhanging masses of snow can break under your feet further back than you might expect, or they can release naturally (ex. Whetstone, Emmons, and Owen). This is a difficult avalanche problem to predict, but cornices are more likely to topple during sustained warmups. Give these overhangs a large berth when traveling near them on ridges, and avoid traveling below large cornices today.

    Recent Cornice Fall on Mt Owen. Photo: Dave Kozlowski

Avalanche Discussion

Near or record high temperatures this weekend have accelerated melting and increased wet avalanche hazards beyond our typical spring conditions.  Because of the unusual conditions, we are updating our forecast on Saturday evening with the hopes of encouraging earlier starts for recreators on Sunday and fully informing everyone who is headed out the door before our normal 7 a.m. publishing time. 

Saturday brought a significant uptick in large wet avalanches.  We observed more than a dozen large loose avalanches that gouged through most of the snowpack, along with a handful of large wet slabs. See the media gallery below for some examples.  We are now moving into multiple nights in a row with a poor refreeze followed by temperatures on Sunday soaring yet again into the 40's and 50's at upper elevations.  Consecutive nights without a good refreeze is a bad trend for the snowpack.  Expect dangerous avalanche conditions to develop even sooner on Sunday, and continue to produce more dangerous wet slides.   We have also observed a string of large cornice falls this week. In some cases, cornices have triggered large slabs.  Prolonged and intense warming isn't helping that issue either.  

Our best travel advice with this warmup is to finish your day early or move to mellow terrain if you prefer your beauty sleep instead.  Despite nighttime temperatures staying above freezing at some stations, we are still seeing surfaces refreeze overnight on most slopes due to radiational cooling.  There is a window of better stability early in the morning before surface crusts break down.  The snow will start to become unstable only a few hours after sunup on easterly aspects.   You can buy more time by moving to south or west aspects that catch sun progressively later in the day.  As soon as crusts break down, or if your terrain of choice didn't refreeze overnight at all, it's time to back away from steep terrain.  

 

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