Gunnison

Avalanche conditions are generally safe thanks to a week of good overnight freezing tempuratuers and a drop in high temperatures for today. Keep an eye out for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. If you find yourself sinking deeply into wet snow, or in an area with a fully unsupportable wet snowpack, it would be a good idea to head somewhere else to avoid potential wet avalanche issues. On high northerly facing slopes in extreme terrain, normal caution will also include considering the potential to trigger a dry slab avalanche where the snowpack has a variable depth. Hunt the soft snow, ride the crust along the way like a champ, say no to wet mush, and remember that even a small avalanche in extreme terrain can push you over high consequence terrain features.

Over the years of forecasting, we've been close to having a forecast without a listed avalanche problem, but I don't think we've actually had it happen in my time. We've landed squarely in a time where any potential avalanche problems are isolated in their distribution and there are no primary avalanche problems causing heightened avalanche conditions. We call this normal caution... Below let's take a look at those isolated avalanche problems that fall under this normal caution.

Persistent Slabs: Yes, we live in Corado and have a continental snowpack where new snow adds up all winter over a weak base. We live with this avalanche problem all winter until spring when the warmer temperatures either allow those weak grains to gain strength or water drains through them. During last weekend's warm-up, the persistent slab avalanche problem was dropped from the problem list as we passed through a significant warm-up and watched wet avalanches rain down. In many areas the melting snowpack sent water draining down through those weak grains. Or, we've seen those old weak grains not necessarily get wetted from above, but instead spend enough time in a mild temperature gradient that they have gained strength. Above freezing, temperatures made it all the way up to 14,000ft last weekend for the first time this winter. This created surface crusts in some areas and helped the upper snowpack continue to settle. However, some high northerly-facing slopes could still hold a slab over weak faceted snow. These slabs will not be easy to trigger, and the potential problem lands at very isolated and unlikely in the big picture view. 

Wet Avalanche Problems: We again can look back to last weekend when wet avalanches were raining down. The hot temperatures and multiple nights without a refreeze were causing water to run through the snowpack and release wet slab avalanches when that water reached dry weak layers. Or, small loose wet avalanches would start from a point, and then gouge deeply into the wet snowpack, growing in size as they descended. We observed wet avalanches at all elevations during that period. Now since last weekend, we have had a good freeze each night, and upper elevation temperatures have even remained below freezing through the day. These colder temperatures have allowed these wet avalanche problems to stabilize, and the snowpack to change towards a more mature spring snowpack. Any remaining wet avalanche concerns are now also isolated in their big picture view, and in many areas, they may not even exist. As the strong April sun makes its rounds and/or where temperatures climb above freezing, we will still see the surface of the snowpack become soft. Since the surface snowpack has transitioned from warm to cold many times now, loose wet avalanches are far less of a concern when compared to the first time they saw that transition. If you are on slope angles near or above 40 degrees and have several inches of wet snow, sure, you could probably push that down as a predictable and small avalanche. The more wet snow you encounter, the potentially greater the wet avalanche problem would be. The current weather forecast is keeping high temperatures in check, and any wet avalanches look isolated, small, and/or fairly easy to manage. You may be able to find a more concerning amount of wet snow on steep rocky terrain. 

Cornices: We observed a good number of cornices that release last weekend and during the previous week when we were dealing with those hot temperatures. The current cooler temperature trend has again decreased the threat of a cornice releasing naturally. A cornice releasing naturally has also become very isolated in the big picture. Large overhangs of snow still warrant caution when traveling near or above them given the potential high consequences if one did release.