Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Very warm temperatures and sunny skies mean that Wet Loose avalanches are likely on South slopes.  Time your tour accordingly to find good safe riding.  It is officially springtime and as we continue to see sunny, warm days we will see Cornices collapse. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    On Saturday we could see the daytime high temperature reach 50 F for below treeline elevations.  It will be sunny.  The surface snow will definitely be melting on sunny slopes and Wet Loose avalanches are likely.

    Of course with overnight freezing temperatures, these same South slopes will also draw riders looking for early corn skiing.  The trick is to time your tour accordingly and travel on these slopes before surface snow transitions from nice soft skiing to dangerously unconsolidated.  Pay attention to how deeply below the surface the snow is melting, and watch for Wet Loose avalanches in steeper terrain as signs that the snow is becoming dangerously unstable.

    An example of a small Wet Loose avalanche.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    It's always prudent to avoid Cornices in the backcountry.  They are unpredictable.  It is worth realizing that during the spring, all of the Cornices will collapse at some point.  Any day that is very warm and sunny like Saturday will be, is a good time to completely avoid Cornices.  Remember that even if you are traveling on a cooler shady slope with overhead Cornices, the back sides of those Cornices may be getting a lot of heat from the sun.

Avalanche Discussion

Saturday will be another day of high pressure with warm, sunny weather.  On Friday the DOT weather station on Century Drive reached 43 degrees F.  Saturday will be even warmer.  Any instabilities will relate to this warming and the resulting melting.  Many slopes today experienced a melt freeze cycle, although upper elevation North slopes likely did not.  

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