Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You are most likely to still trigger a persistent slab avalanche on Northwest through East aspects near and above treeline where old buried hard slabs can be found resting over weak faceted snow. This structure will be difficult to identify on the surface and you'll need to approach each slope individually as there is a lot of variability in where these hard slabs are present. It's still possible that one of these avalanches if triggered would be large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. You should seek to evaluate snow and terrain carefully, especially on slopes over 35 degrees. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Slabs that formed from our previous storm and resulted in a natural avalanche cycle on Dec 29 have quickly lost their strength. It's difficult to find areas where these slabs have enough cohesion to communicate energy. However, hard slabs formed prior to this last storm just before Christmas are buried within the snowpack and are resting over facets. Areas where these slabs exist still have the potential to propagate producing a persistent slab avalanche. 

    These hard slabs were formed with a lot of variability in thickness, density, and distribution. Slopes that harbor the thickest hard slabs should be considered especially suspect. Dealing with hard slabs means it can be more difficult to trigger an avalanche - which can create a false sense of security. Finding the "sweet spot" such as thinner portions along the margins of the slab or around rock outcroppings can provide a better avenue for effecting buried weak layers and producing an avalanche. 

Avalanche Discussion

Sunny days and cold clear nights have driven a steep temperature gradient and faceting process that has quickly zapped the strength out of newly formed slabs from Dec 28 - 29. The lack of any significant wind since then has also contributed greatly to the loss of strength. So for right now, we're back to talking about the same hard slabs we were concerned about before. These hard slabs are resting over weak faceted layers of snow and are still showing the ability to propagate in long column tests. It's still possible to find a cohesive soft slab on the surface capable of producing an avalanche but it will likely be confined to the leeward sides of ridges and cross-loaded features above treeline. 

Solar-induced surface instabilities may also produce small loose snow avalanches on solar aspects at all elevations by early afternoon today. It's possible small avalanches may entrain into weak snow creating a larger avalanche. In wind-sheltered areas near and below treeline, cohesion-less snow may be able to produce small dry loose avalanches out of steep terrain features. 

Due to the variable distribution of these hard slabs when they were formed we feel it is important to address each slope individually right now. You may find a buried hard slab that's 20cm thick on one slope and the next doesn't have one at all or it's only half as thick. It's no surprise that we are huge advocates for getting the shovel out and taking a look at what's happening under your feet. It's valuable information and can really help slow things down and promote a more thoughtful discussion on terrain selection and management. We hope everyone has been enjoying the great skiing and riding conditions. Happy New Year and stay safe out there!

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