Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

New snow and strong winds have created very dangerous avalanche conditions. Newly formed storm slabs will continue to build and could be upwards of 2 to 3 feet thick on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain. Human-triggered storm slab avalanches are very likely today and could step down into deeper faceted weak layers creating a larger more destructive persistent slab avalanche.  Faceted weak layers near the old surface, and depth hoar close to the ground, will face a significant test from this storm. Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 30 degrees, as natural avalanches are likely.  Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential today. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

     8 to 10 inches of snow has fallen overnight with an additional foot of snow forecasted throughout the day today.  This new snow combined with the strong winds will continue to thicken storm slabs at all elevations.  This new snow has fallen on top of firm surfaces, making for a good bed surface that may allow these slabs to run fast and long distances.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees today as natural avalanches are likely above treeline.  Pay attention to obvious clues like shooting cracks and wind drifted pillows.  Leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded gullies could have storm slabs upwards of 2 to 3 feet thick. A smaller storm slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a large and dangerous avalanche. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recently developed near-surface facets have formed around crusts and hard wind slabs higher up in the snowpack over last week's high pressure.  These mid-pack and near-surface facets will face their first big test as close to 2 feet of snow adds weight and creates cohesive slabs on the surface.  Deeper down in the snowpack facets that formed in December have been lingering throughout the season and have been the culprit of several avalanche cycles. On slopes that had previously shallow snowpacks where depth hoar was closer to surface    

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks. Any avalanche triggered in one of these faceted weak layers would large and if it steps down closer to the ground these avalanches would unmanageable.  Give avalanche paths wide berths today as a smaller natural storm slab avalanche could trigger one of these large monster avalanches.   

     

Avalanche Discussion

It took a little while, but snow finally started falling early in the evening continuing through the night with snow totals early this morning around 8 - 10 inches of snow with .7" of snow water equivalent (SWE). Continued snowfall throughout the day could bring another foot of snow by the time this storm makes its exit later tonight.  Strong west winds overnight will continue today with sustained winds in the 20 to 30 mph range and gusts in the 60's.  This combination of strong winds and new snow will create very dangerous avalanche conditions at all elevations.   There are reports from early this morning of large natural storm slab avalanches in steep terrain above treeline. With intense 1 to 2 inch an hour snowfall rates expected at times and strong winds, expect to see natural avalanches today at higher elevations where slabs will continue to build. 

The most likely hazard today will be new storm snow instabilities, which will be dangerous on their own and could produce avalanches that are large enough to injure or bury a person.    A big storm like this may also reawaken the deeper down faceted weak layers in the shallow snowpacks that existed before this storm.  Today will be a day to let mother nature run its course and see where things stand afterwards.    

As another round of winter impacts our mountains, it's time to take a step back from the bigger lines we've been playing on. Terrain selection and conservative decision-making will be essential over the next several days as avalanche danger should stay elevated. Sticking to lower-angle terrain and avoiding avalanche path runouts will be essential today.    

Regions covered