Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche danger will increase with today's storm. Small wind slabs were reactive to the weight of skiers and riders yesterday and will grow with today's new snow and wind. At lower and middle elevations, triggering a large avalanche is unlikely. Continue to use extra caution on very steep, rocky, wind-affected slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    On an off-duty ski day in the Sawtooths yesterday, I found small, isolated wind slabs 8-12" thick that were easy to trigger (read my observation here). I also spotted debris from a number of small slabs that had failed in very steep, rocky terrain overnight on Saturday. As today's storm brings an additional 3-6" of snow to this zone, these slabs will grow in size and distribution. Though small, these slabs will be plenty large to knock you off your feet and take you for an unpleasant ride. As overall snowpack stability improves in this area and we move into steeper, rockier terrain, we will be well-served to remember that even these small slabs can have high consequences.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    We've been plagued by persistent weak layers the entire season. First by early-season facets near the ground, then by weak layers that were buried in late-January and February. These weak layers still exist on most slopes, but observations from across the forecast area indicate that triggering a persistent slab avalanche is unlikely.

    Even though triggering a persistent slab avalanche is unlikely, that's not the same as impossible. There's still a small chance of triggering a persistent slab avalanche on very steep, rocky, wind-affected slopes, particularly those that face the sun. Terrain like this is most common at upper elevations and especially in the alpine. Take a look at the photo at right/above that I snapped last week of an avalanche that occurred in exactly this sort of terrain in this zone.

     

    (3/3/2021) Crown of a large slab avalanche in the Sawtooth Mountains. This slide failed on a S/SE facing slope at 8,800'

Avalanche Discussion

Today's forecast discussion will be a little different, bear with me.

On this day 5 years ago, Kip Rand was killed in an accident in the mountains. Kip was an avalanche professional, an experienced ski mountaineer, a brother, a son, a lover, a friend to all who knew him, and a proficient cookie baker. He was also my best friend. For those that knew him well, the loss of Kip has left a void that has been very difficult to fill.

I was skiing with Kip on the day that he died. The accident occurred as we were nearing the end of a long ski tour in the Wallowa Mountains of eastern Oregon. The snowpack was stable and we had skied and climbed large, consequential avalanche terrain on many aspects and elevations at that point in the day. As we were looking for a way to safely enter the final couloir that we planned to ski, the cornice we were attempting to navigate past broke far wider and much further back than we anticipated. I watched as the fracture opened up between us and Kip fell into the couloir along with the house-sized cornice, which weighed an estimated 500,000 pounds. He was carried over 1,000' down the rocky couloir and buried in the debris. I was initially able to rescue and revive him, but he ultimately did not survive the injuries that he sustained.

This is hard for me to talk about, but I think it is important. Mountains are beautiful places that provide us with things that make us whole, but they are also unpredictable and unforgiving. As we see the danger dropping in our area and the likelihood of triggering avalanches decreasing, we generally react by putting ourselves into higher consequence situations. This phenomenon, known as "risk-homeostasis", is innately human. A classic example is found in seat belts. When these features were introduced into vehicles we collectively decided that it was acceptable to drive at a higher rate of speed. This is neither right nor wrong, it's just how we are as humans. We are fragile creatures who like to test our own boundaries. Losing Kip hasn't lessened the pull that steep, rocky mountains have on me. Just yesterday, I was playing in terrain where making a mistake would have had significant consequences. Kip's death taught me a very hard, but important lesson: we have to be honest with ourselves about the risks we are taking and our ability to control those risks. If you are going to be fighting with dragons, you have to be willing to look them in the eye.

The snowpack varies significantly across our forecast area. Even though the avalanche danger is (mostly) the same across the forecast area, the dragons that we are facing are not. For me, the most frightening sort of dragons are the unpredictable ones. Right now, the most unpredictable dragons are living in the Boulder, White Cloud, and Pioneer Mountains. Even though I know the likelihood of triggering a slide on the weak layers here isn't high, the thought of entering big, upper elevation terrain in this zone makes me shiver. I know that I could probably go ski large, consequential terrain here and get away with it, but I'm not interested in rolling those dice. If I'm going to be taking risks, I want to be doing it in a way where my actions can have an impact on the outcome.

Today's forecast is dedicated to Kip. Enjoy the mountains and the fresh air in your lungs today. Smile, laugh, and hug your friends. Appreciate the freedom of the hills, but be sure to make eye contact with the dragons along the way.

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