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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2015–Feb 1st, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Sensible decision making was observed in the Parkers Area today by field team.  Skiers are respecting the sensitive storm slab conditions that exist.

Weather Forecast

Clear overnight with clouds and snow moving in by noon on Sunday.  4-6 cm expected with light SW winds.  Temps remaining seasonal.

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm temperatures and rain followed by cooler temps have produced a widespread crust up to 2400m on all aspects. Above this, previous wind affected surfaces in exposed areas and wind slabs on lee aspects. 15-20 cm of storm snow is now sitting over this crust and has blown into wind slabs at tree line and above.

Avalanche Summary

An avalanche cycle has taken place in the last 24 hrs. Numerous solar triggered size 2 slab and loose snow avalanches at tree line and sub alpine on W aspects failing on the rain crust.  3 size 2 slab avalanches on E aspects  failing on rain crust at tree line and above. Size 3 explosive triggered avalanche at Marmot stepped down to Nov crust.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.