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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 19th, 2013–Mar 20th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Winds continue to buffet the Icefields yet good skiing can be found in sheltered locations. Weather models are not agreeing with amounts or timing of  warm front. If more precipitation arrives plus warmer temperatures, expect the danger to increase. 

Weather Forecast

Wednesday will bring a warm front, possibly 5-10cm of snow, rain lower elevations with freezing level 1700m, and strong SW alpine winds. The models are not agreeing with Wednesday's timing. Thursday will have cooling trend, diminished winds, flurries, and lower freezing level. Friday will be much like Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

Soft slabs continue to form at exposed treeline locations and above from today's moderate West winds. Previous North winds reverse loaded many slopes and gullies. 90cm of snow fell since March 13. Snow transport is occurring. At treeline, soft slabs rest on a suncrust 80 cm deep in south facing terrain. Below treeline is generally supportive.

Avalanche Summary

Tuesday's patrol had 100% visibility. Several recent large avalanches to size 3 noted on large high elevation features on various aspects from the past 24hrs. A number of loose moist avalanches up to size 2 were noted mainly from sun impacted slopes, gullies, and cliffs. All these observed recent avalanches were running relatively far. 

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Wednesday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.