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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2013–Jan 13th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Jasper.

Winds have affected the recent storm snow. Upside down powder condition making for challenging skiing. Weather models may be overestimating warming trend on Monday and Tuesday but still a few days away, could be a game changer.

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Light flurries, trending warmer, 1500m light westerly winds but 50km/hr NW at 3000m. Monday: 5cm snow, warm temperatures but remaining below 0, 50-80km/hr NW ridgetop winds and stronger winds at higher elevations. A little valley bottom freezing rain. Tuesday: Above normal temperatures, potentially +6 in town, continued strong alpine winds. 

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30 cm of low density storm snow fell on Wednesday but nothing since then. Winds are forming it into slabs alpine and exposed treeline locations. Low elevations the snow remains thin and facetted. Tree line and above its thicker and supportive. A buried a surface hoar layer from Jan 6 is lurking but has yet to become an issue.

Avalanche Summary

Thursday's explosive control on low elevation targets released several size 2 slabs and loose snow avalanches. Natural activity has remain limited. No natural activity was noted today; however, forecasters observed pockets of thin windslabs, minor whumphing and cracking, which should be continually assessed as it seems to be getting worse. 

Confidence

Wind speed and direction is uncertain on Sunday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.