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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 4th, 2014–Dec 7th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

With 55cm at Little Prairie there is sufficient snow for travel on trails at lower elevations. While there is over one meter at Treeline coverage remains poor Below Treeline with early season hazards presenting a real threat to skiers and riders.

Weather Forecast

Warming Friday with a few flurries and a freezing level reaching Little Prairie at 1700m Southwest winds increasing to moderate. 5 to 10cm on Saturday with a steady freezing level and winds increasing to Strong. Freezing levels to drop to townsite Sunday at 1300m with few flurries as winds back off to moderate.  Significant warming begins Monday.

Snowpack Summary

At Treeline from the ground: 5cm of mid-Nov facets sit on 30cm of crusts formed early in November. Rain at the start of the storm on Nov 26 created a 7cm crust over the facets before cooler temps Nov 27 and 28 dropped up to 1m of snow. Wind effect can be found in open areas at treeline however this looks to be much more advanced in the alpine.

Avalanche Summary

At least two large avalanches occurred near the end of the recent storm: a size 3 hit Cameron Lake and another large crown was seen above Forum Lake. A fracture line profile on Forum ridge today found the November 28 crust to be the bed surface and we suspect very soft snow at the base of the newly formed slabs was the failure plane.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.