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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 14th, 2016–Apr 15th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

Cloud cover and a slow rise in freezing levels Friday should help limit the avalanche danger to steeper slopes. Small loose wet avalanches are possible on steeper slopes involving snow received during the week. Be especially wary of loose wet avalanches near terrain traps Friday. 

Detailed Forecast

Cloud cover and a slow rise in freezing levels Friday should help limit the avalanche danger to steeper slopes. Small loose wet avalanches are possible on steeper slopes involving snow received during the week. Watch for wet snow deeper than your boot tops, especially on steep solar slopes during the late morning to afternoon hours. Even if skies remain cloudy, strong solar input in mid-April will affect the snow surface on solar slopes.  

Storm and winds slabs will not be listed due to the right-side up layering and quicker settlement rates seen during spring storms. However, be aware of the potential for isolated slab avalanches involving the new snow mainly on non-solar aspects of higher terrain.

The potential for cornice releases should be low Friday but will increase through the weekend. Cornice releases can be unpredictable during the spring so avoid areas below cornices and remember that cornices can break much further back than expected along ridges.

Although not listed as an avalanche problem, large, powerful glide avalanches can release unexpectedly so avoid areas below steep unsupported slopes or rock faces showing glide cracks.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

We've had two big warm-ups and spring shed cycles since the end of March. Over this time period the snowpack has undergone significant settlement with lower elevation snow beginning to fade away and with an overall transition to a spring snowpack.

On Tuesday afternoon and night a frontal system brought a few inches of snow, with about 6 inches of new snow at Hurricane Ridge. Lighter new snow amounts were seen through Thursday morning from a low pressure system passing south of the Olympics. New snow has generally settled rapidly with both these systems and wind transport of new snowfall has been minimal. 

After a relatively cool week, the upper snowpack has likely drained and refrozen near and above treeline and on non-solar aspects. However it's quite variable how supportable the underlying crust is throughout the terrain. At lower elevations and on solar aspects, wet grains likely remain dominant in the upper snowpack.  

Frequent March storms built large cornices along many ridges. The potential for low probability/high consequence encounters, such as cornice failures and glide avalanches from steep unsupported slopes and smooth rock faces will continue through the spring. 

The mid and lower snowpack along the west slopes should generally be a stable mix of crusts and layers of moist and rounded snow crystals.

Recent Observations

No recent observations have been received from the Olympics. 

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.