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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 23rd, 2019–Nov 24th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

A natural cycle of large avalanches is expected Saturday night/Sunday morning as a result of the incoming storm.

The new Winter Permit System is in effect. Closures are possible Sunday.

A permit is required to enter restricted areas when they are open.

Weather Forecast

A frontal system passing through BC from the NW will bring strong winds and snowfall to our area through the weekend. 

Today: Flurries (6cm). Treeline High -4 C. Ridge wind mod SW, Frzlvl 1400m.

Tonight: Snow (22cm). TL Low -7 C. Wind mod SW (gusting extreme).

Sunday: Flurries (5 cm). TL High -7 C. Wind light W (gusting strong). Frzlvl 1000m.

Snowpack Summary

Incoming new snow will likely overload previous surfaces of wind effect and suncrusts at upper elevations, and surface hoar up to 20mm in the valley bottoms. This new snow may also trigger the 35-50cm persistent slab that sits on a crust/surface hoar/stellar layer. The lower snowpack consists of several melt-freeze crusts from late October.

Avalanche Summary

Human-triggered avalanches to size 2 were reported from Little Sifton, Balu Pass and the Asulkan Hut early in the week. The Balu Pass avalanche buried the person to their neck and gear was lost. Numerous natural avalanches to size 2.5-3 were observed from The Dome, Tupper, MacDonald, and Cheops during the storm last Sunday morning.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.