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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2018–Mar 4th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Overcast skies and isolated flurries will limit the effects of the strong late-winter sun, but you should remain wary of solar aspects where the new snow rests on a buried sun crust that may remain sensitive to human triggering.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

The forecast has changed since yesterday. Sunday looks to be cloudy with a chance of flurries for the Sea to Sky region. Monday also looks cloudy, but clouds may give way to clear skies on Tuesday. SUNDAY: Overcast, freezing level rising to around 600 m, light southwest wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.MONDAY: Scattered cloud cover in the morning, increasing cloud throughout the day, freezing level rising to around 700 m, light west/southwest wind, trace of snow possible.TUESDAY: Clear skies, freezing level rising to around 1000 m, light variable wind, no snow expected.

Avalanche Summary

A few human triggered avalanches to size 2.5 were reported Friday. A size 1.5 and second size 2.5 were triggered on southwest facing slopes between 1900 and 2000 m. These likely failed on the February 22nd interface which presents as a crust with surface hoar and/or facets on it. South facing slopes may be where this interface is most reactive. A skier also remote triggered a size 1.5 avalanche on a wind loaded slope of unknown aspect/elevation. On Thursday natural avalanches to size 2.5 were reported on a variety of aspects as the snowpack adjusted to the new snow. Control work produced numerous storm slab and cornice failure avalanches to size 2 on all aspects.On Wednesday soft wind slabs up to 20 in depth were sensitive to human triggering to size 1.5. Wednesday night's storm likely initiated a cycle of natural storm slab avalanche activity.We received a great MIN report on Tuesday of a large snowmobile triggered wind slab avalanche on the Brandywine Glacier that featured a 100 cm crown. More details available here.

Snowpack Summary

The Wednesday night storm produced far more snow than expected, 20 to 45 cm of slightly upside down snow fell across the region accompanied by winds out of the east, southeast and south. In wind exposed terrain the new snow rests on widespread wind damaged snow and wind slabs. In wind sheltered terrain the new snow may be sitting on a thin layer of surface hoar. The February 22nd interface is now down 50 to 70 cm, this layer is composed of old wind slabs, spotty surface hoar, facets and a sun crust on solar aspects. Snowpack testing on Thursday continues to produce planar shears at this interface. As we move into the later half of the weekend south facing slopes will be the most suspect with regard to this layer. Beneath the February 22nd interface the snowpack is well settled and strong. Variable winds in the past month have produced cornices on many ridgelines. They will become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and when they are subject to the strong late-winter sun on clear days.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.