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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 24th, 2018–Mar 25th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

New snow and strong westerly winds are building thicker and reactive wind slabs on leeward aspects. If the sun pokes out it may initiate a natural avalanche cycle win the recent storm snow.

Confidence

Moderate - Wind effect is extremely variable

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Mix of sun and cloud with snow amounts 2-5 cm. Ridgetop wind strong from the West. Alpine temperatures near -7 and freezing levels 900 m. Monday: Mostly cloudy and snow 2-5 cm. Ridgetop winds strong from the southwest. Alpine temperatures near -2 and freezing levels 1200 m. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud Ridgetop winds strong-extreme from the West. Freezing levels 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

With 20 cm of new snow overnight and a bunch of wind I suspect there may have been a widespread natural storm, wind slab and loose dry avalanche cycle on Saturday. Periods of sunshine forecast for Sunday could trigger a round of natural slab avalanches and loose dry/wet avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 35 cm of new snow, accompanied by strong easterly winds in the beginning of the storm and now switching to the southwest are forming wind slabs on a variety of aspects. Forecast snow for Saturday will add to these totals and may initially have a poor bond to the underlying old snow surfaces which consist of crusts up to 2100 m and dry snow or surface hoar on north aspects above 2100 m. Snowpack testing on the March 15th surface hoar interface (down 20-40 cm on sheltered North aspects) has shown no significant results in the Barnes area. The mid-pack is is well consolidated. Deeper in the snowpack (50-80 cm down) a surface hoar buried mid-February may exist. This interface is dormant. Digging towards the bottom of the snowpack you'll find a combination of crusts and facets that are reportedly widespread.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.