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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2018–Feb 15th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Wind slabs exist on a wide range of aspects and may be hidden by the most recent snow.

Confidence

High - on Thursday

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Increasing cloud with light flurries in the evening, light to moderate west wind, alpine high temperatures around -10 C.FRIDAY: Trace to 5 cm of new snow by the morning then clearing throughout the day, light northwest wind, freezing level climbing to 1000 m with alpine high temperatures around -6 C.SATURDAY: Moderate snowfall with 10-20 cm throughout the day, strong southwest wind, freezing level up to 900 m with alpine high temperatures around -6 C.

Avalanche Summary

The new snow produced a few small isolated size 1 avalanches on Wednesday. No new avalanches were reported on Tuesday.Some larger wind slabs were reactive to skier triggers on the weekend, including a size 2 avalanche on a north-facing slope near Whistler on Saturday (see MIN report here).Several large cornices have collapsed over the past week. One resulted in a fatal accident in the Callaghan area on Saturday. A snowmobiler was parked 7-10 m back from the edge of a corniced ridge when a large chuck broke off and took the rider down the slope. See here for a full report. A similar incident occurred nearby the same day, but the person only suffered minor injuries. A collapsing cornice also triggered a large slab (size 3) on a north-facing slope west of Pemberton on the weekend. Fragile cornices continue to be a concern in the region.

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of new snow sits above a variety of old surfaces, including scoured crusty surfaces on south-facing alpine slopes, old wind slabs on a range of aspects at high elevations, and a melt-freeze crust up to about 1900 m. On average, 180 cm of settled snow now sits on the mid-January crust which generally shows signs of bonding to the overlying snow; however, it has the potential to wake up with a large trigger such as a cornice fall. Below this, the snowpack is thought to be generally strong and well-settled.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.