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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 15th, 2019–Apr 16th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Jasper.

Weather Forecast

A cool and unstable air mass over the region giving isolated flurries in the alpine for the start of the week. Freezing levels rise towards the end of the week. On Tue a mix of sun and cloud with alp highs of -3C and freezing levels close to 2000m. A system starts to move in on Wed with increasing gusting winds from the SW then snow on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

Above treeline 10cm of loose snow sits on a variety of crusts. Above 2200m, on Northerly facing slopes, a more winter like snowpack can be found. However, at and below 2200 melt-freeze crust dominate the upper snowpack. In the alpine a weak layer down 20-50cm is of concern. Mid and lower snowpack is faceted, and weak in shallow areas.

Avalanche Summary

Recent observation confirm only small loose dry releases from steep and rocky north facing terrain and gully features. Whumphing has been noted from shallower snowpack areas and moraine features indicating unstable snow below.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.