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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 17th, 2016–Feb 18th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Forecast new snow amounts and freezing levels are uncertain, due to weather models variability. If your area gets more snow than I have forecast, these danger ratings may be one level too low.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Flurries or light snow overnight combined with moderate southeast winds and freezing levels dropping down to valley bottoms. On Thursday, expect 5-8 cm of new snow with moderate to strong southwest winds and freezing levels rising up to 1400 metres. On Friday there should be another pulse of 5-10 cm of new snow and moderate southwest wind with freezing levels climbing to 1400 metres and then dropping to valley bottoms by Saturday morning. There is a chance of some sunny breaks on Friday and Saturday.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. Recent wind slabs have been the greatest concern for commercial operators.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate southwest winds and 5-10 cm of new snow added to the wind slabs and settling storm snow from the past few days. About 40-60 cm below the surface, you'll likely find a melt freeze crust. This crust exists in most places except for higher elevation shaded terrain. In many areas there seems to be a reasonable bond between the crust and the overlying snow. I'd still keep an eye on this interface as it has become reactive on some features. Surface hoar buried in early January now lies up to 180cm below the surface and has become less of a concern. Possible triggers for this deep and destructive layer include a large cornice fall or significant warming.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.