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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2011–Jan 1st, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertainfor the entire period

Weather Forecast

Sunday: 5-7cm of snow / strong southerly windsMonday: 5-10 cm of snow / strong southerly windsTuesday: Light snowfall / moderate southwest winds Temperatures for the forecast period are uncertain. While some models claim freezing levels of 1000m on sunday/monday some models are calling for freezing levels to reach 2000m. The freezing levels should drop to 1000m for tuesday. Stay tuned for more info.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported in the past 24 hours. Several natural, explosives and human-triggered avalanches were been reported friday to size 3. On Thursday afternoon, a backcountry skier was carried into trees by a size 2 slab. Preliminary details are: the avalanche was on a north aspect at 1920m in the Cerise Creek, Duffey Lake area. The crown depth was 70cm and the failure plane is believed to be the December 17th facet layer. The terrain was complex, including a cross-loaded feature above a gully. The skier did not survive his injuries. An adjacent slope avalanched naturally on the same layer at size 3.

Snowpack Summary

The past week's storm snow totals are now in the 60-90cm range. Strong southerly winds have shifted snow into wind slabs on lee slopes in the alpine and at treeline.Below the recent storm snow, three weaknesses exist in the upper snowpack. A surface hoar layer formed in early December overlies facets and is down about 60cm. It is giving easy-very easy, sudden collapse results in snowpack tests.A second surface hoar layer buried around Christmas is also giving easy, sudden planar results.A crust/facet combo which exists to around treeline, buried on December 17th, adds to the complexity of the snowpack and has shown the potential to propagate widely.Persistent weaknesses seem to be more of a concern around the Duffey Lake area than in the Cascades (Coquihalla and Allison Pass).The mid and lower snowpack are generally well-settled and strong.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.