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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 21st, 2013–Jan 22nd, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Timing of incoming weather is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Monday night and Tuesday: Another day with the upper ridge pattern. Few high clouds with valley clouds above the main valleys, strong Westerlies becoming moderate, the inversion will start to erode and freezing levels also starting to drop. Wednesday: A system coming from the Pacific will begin to affect the region bringing moderate precipitation, cooler temperatures and lowering freezing level to the surface, with moderate SW winds.Thursday: Lingering precipitation from the system with moderate to strong W winds. Temperatures staying cool.

Avalanche Summary

A few small natural slab and loose avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported which would have initiated in steep E and NE aspects. 

Snowpack Summary

A thin layer of new snow is sitting on windslabs in the alpine and at treeline and above a well settled 40 cm of snow. A crust is present on S facing slopes. A surface hoar layer is found under the top 40 cm and is reactive especially below 1500 m. in sheltered areas.  This weak layer is becoming less of a concern for the professional but still produces a variety of test results. The distribution of this weak is patchy, but where it exist, it may be triggered with the weight of a person or snowmobile. A strong mid-pack overlies a weak facet/crust layer near the base of the snowpack, which is now considered inactive.  

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.