Avalanche danger can change during the course of a day. Avalanche danger will be LOW where there is a hard refrozen surface and may rise, with natural avalanches possible, during periods of warming.
Confidence
Fair - Due to limited field observations
Weather Forecast
Sunday: Sunny breaks. Cloud increasing through the day and light precipitation starting by evening. Light to moderate SW winds. Freezing level around 1800 m.Monday: Light to moderate convective precipitation. Moderate SW winds. Freezing level around 1600 m. Clearing in the evening.Tuesday: Sunshine in the morning, changing to cloud and light precipitation late in the day. Moderate S winds. Freezing level around 1400 m.
Avalanche Summary
Recent reports include cornice fall and loose wet avalanches. Full-depth size 2-3 glide avalanches have been releasing on rock slabs.
Snowpack Summary
Glide cracks have opened up and pose the threat of large, full-depth releases, especially on steep rocky terrain features at low elevations. Recently, a lack of overnight freezing at low elevations left the snowpack weak. Once a few good freezes occur, stability should improve dramatically. Large cornices pose a threat from above. A buried crust/surface hoar layer from late March, within the upper 1.5 m of the snowpack, is reported to have gained strength in the Duffey Lake area, but may remain a lingering concern. At this time of year, snowpack stability tends to decrease during times of warming (e.g. on slopes receiving sunshine, during rainfall, in the afternoon and at low elevations).
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Wet Slabs
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.