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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2012–Mar 13th, 2012

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Light to moderate snowfall continues. Moderate south-westerly winds. Freezing level around 500m.Wednesday: The next storm pulse arrives with moderate to heavy snow. Freezing level rising to 1000m. Strong south to south-westerly winds.Thursday: Heavy snow. Freezing level rising to 1500m. Strong south-westerly winds.

Avalanche Summary

A few cornice-triggered and small skier-triggered slabs in the size 1-2 range have been reported since it began snowing on Friday. Earlier in the week, warming prompted a widespread natural cycle in the Coquihalla and skiers triggered very touchy persistent slabs at low elevations. An unnervingly large natural avalanche cycle occurred last weekend, with slabs up to size 4.5 propagating 2-3km along ridgelines and stepping down to the mid-February layer. Similar avalanches are possible as storm loading continues this week.

Snowpack Summary

Strong winds and new snow are expected to create wind slabs and storm slabs which are likely to fail in steep terrain, and could overload persistent weak layers. Persistent weak layers are variable in distribution across the region. A hollow series of poorly-bonded crusts was reported on southerly aspects in the Duffey Lake and Chilcotin regions last week, which may have healed somewhat with dramatic warming at the end of last week. A lower weakness comprising surface hoar, facets and a crust, has produced whumpfs and sudden planar ("pops") results in snowpack tests. It is still is a key concern for step-down avalanches in many parts of the region. It is especially prevalent on south-facing slopes above treeline, and all slopes below treeline.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.