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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 9th, 2016–Mar 10th, 2016

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Forecast models vary but we may see up to 20cm of snow by Thursday afternoon with strong winds.  New snow, warm temps and strong winds will create ideal conditions for slab development. 

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

10-18cm of snow is forecast to arrive by the end of the day on Thursday.  This snow will come under the influence of a strong SW wind (60-80km/hr) and warm temps (-3C in the alpine).  These are ideal conditions for new slabs to develop and build. 

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose dry avalanches on all aspects were observed on Wednesday. There was no new slab avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

There is now up to 20cm of recent snow overlying the March 9th crust that is being found on all aspects up to 2300m and up to ridge tops on solar aspects. This new snow is bonding well at this time but with more load and wind we can expect avalanches to occur more easily at this interface. Two other temperature crusts can be found in the upper part of the snowpack but there have been no significant avalanches on these layers of late. The Jan 6th interface is down in general 100cm to 140cm and still producing sudden collapse results that are giving forecasters little confidence in bigger terrain. Triggering of this interface from a shallow area is a definite possibility.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.