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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 31st, 2015–Mar 31st, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Cooler temperatures should "lock up" the snowpack at lower elevations. Conditions are still more winter-like at high elevations.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Wednesday will be cloudy with scattered flurries and possible snowfall accumulations of 5cm. The temperature should reach a high of -6 °C in the alpine. Winds will be out of the northwest at 30 km/h gusting to 70 km/h at ridgetop. Freezing level is expected to be1500 metres.

Avalanche Summary

Two slab avalanches have occurred in the past 48hrs on steep SE aspects in the alpine. These were both size 2.0 and likely triggered by warming and/or solar radiation. In addition, several loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5 were noted on all aspects at treeline and  below.

Snowpack Summary

A very light freeze occurred overnight at valley bottom, but treeline elevations remained above freezing through the night. Conditions are isothermal for much of the snowpack below 2300m. Crusts are also found at higher elevations on solar aspects, and these are breaking down during sunny periods and on very warm days. Isolated pockets of wind slab are found in alpine areas, particularly in lee and cross-loaded gully features. At upper elevations the basal weaknesses have been unaffected by the recent warm conditions and can still be triggered in steep and shallow snowpack regions.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.