Sunday should see a brief lull in the weather before we're hit by an onslaught of strong weather systems next week.
Confidence
Fair - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
Sunday: Cloudy with sunny breaks and showers or snow beginning later in the day. Freezing levels should jump up to 2200 m. Winds may rise to strong from the south late in the day. Monday: Cloudy with showers or snow. The freezing level is around 1800 m and winds are moderate from the S-SW. Tuesday: Periods of rain heavy at times. The freezing level is over 2000 m and winds are strong from the south.
Avalanche Summary
There have been no recent reports of avalanches in the past several days; however, I suspect it may be possible to trigger thin new wind slabs in open leeward terrain, particularly in the alpine.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 40 cm of moist new snow now covers the previous variable snow surface consisting of surface hoar or facetted snow in sheltered areas, and pockets of old wind slab or a crust (from last weeks rain) in open wind-exposed terrain. The amount of new snow depends on your location and elevation. Winds during the past week were strong variable and blew snow into dense wind slabs on a variety of aspects or cross-loaded gulley features. Fresh new wind slabs are also likely below ridges and terrain features on north and east facing terrain. A solid rain crust is buried 10-40 cm deep up to 2000 m. Another crust that was buried in mid-November is down 40-60 cm. The deeper crust may be associated with a layer of facets above or below. The snow pack depth drops significantly below treeline with essentially no snow below 1600 m.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.