Avalanche forecast

Cariboos

Apr 3 – 4, 2013Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Be alert to conditions that change with daytime warming. Danger ratings are likely to exceed posted levels if solar radiation is strong, especially at treeline and below.

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–6
    Cornices weaken with daytime warming and become more likely to fail.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–5
    With little re-freezing overnight at lower elevations, loose wet avalanches will run on solar aspects if there is intense radiation during the day. Wet slab avalanches are also possible.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Thursday: A weak high pressure system builds promoting clear and dry conditions with light westerly winds and 1800m freezing levels.Friday: An upper trough of low pressure will move over the Interior late Thursday through Friday bringing light to locally moderate precipitation. Freezing levels will be around 1400m. Winds light to moderate from the west.Saturday: Overcast with light precipitation possible. Winds light from the south.

Avalanche Summary

Natural wet-loose avalanches up to Size 2.5 continue to be reported from throughout the region on solar aspects at all elevations. Isolated cornice releases up to 2.0 have also been reported.

Snowpack Summary

Clear, warm days and cold nights have brought spring's daily melt freeze cycle to the surface snow on sunny aspects into the alpine and all aspects at lower elevations (below 1800m). On high shaded terrain surface hoar is growing, and warm temperatures have promoted settlement within the upper snowpack. Cornices are very large!The March 10th surface hoar/crust interface is buried more than 100cm in most places. Although unlikely to trigger, this deep persistent weakness remains a concern because of the potential for very large avalanches particularly with heavy triggers such as cornice falls or lighter triggers on solar aspects where the crust is more prevalent. Below this the snowpack is well settled.

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