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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 22nd, 2015–Jan 23rd, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

An incoming system is expected on Friday with strong SW winds, 30-40cm of new snow and freezing levels climbing to 2100m by Sunday.

Confidence

Poor - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Very little change in the weather pattern for Friday at this stage in the game and then on Saturday the forecast is calling for up to 30-40cm of new snow over the weekend (as of this date, this will change) strong winds out of the SW and freezing levels climbing to 2100m. Stay tuned for more details as we continue to watch this system.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Not a whole lot of change when it doesnt snow.  Widespread hard slabs in alpine terrain overlying weak facetted crystals and depth hoar.  At treeline there are two layers of concern, the Jan 16th SH layer which was found up to 2300m and is now down 20-30cm in the snowpack and the Dec 13th Crust which is down 40-50cm with a weak layer of facetted grains overlying it.  Generally, still looks like early season out there even though its the middle of the season...

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.