Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A warm front will bring precipitation to the south coast on Wednesday night and Thursday. Unsettled conditions are expected for Friday before the next system reaches the coast on Saturday.Wednesday Night: Precipitation: 8-12mm, freezing level: 1600m, ridgetop wind: light SWThursday: Precipitation 10-15mm, freezing level: 1400m, ridgetop wind: moderate SWFriday: A mix of sun and cloud, light scattered flurries possible, freezing level: 1200m, ridgetop wind: light SW-NWSaturday: Precipitation 5-10mm, freezing level: 1400m, ridgetop wind: moderate-strong SW
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been reported. Cooler temperatures and good overnight recovery over the last few days have improved stability. Expect increased avalanche activity with warming temperatures, new snowfall, and moderate to strong winds.
Snowpack Summary
The new snow sits on a melt-freeze crust which exists on all aspects up to 2000m and to mountain-top on sun-exposed slopes. The recent warmer temperatures have helped to strengthen and settle the upper snowpack. Large sagging cornices are looming over slopes and pose a threat, especially when the sun comes out. The deep and destructive early February facet/crust layer is now close to 200 cm below the surface. This layer is largely dormant at this time; however, it should remain on your radar, especially when freezing levels are high and the sun is shining.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.