Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Track of incoming weather is uncertain

Synopsis: The next system is forecast to affect the southern interior on Sunday night and Monday bringing moderate to heavy snow and strong winds. Drier but unsettled conditions are expected in the wake of the system. Sunday: Flurries with snow developing overnight, 5-10 cm. Winds increase to strong from the SW. Freezing level at valley bottom. Monday: Moderate to heavy snow, 20-25 cm. Freezing level at valley bottom. Tuesday: Cloudy with flurries. Winds should ease to light. Freezing level remains at valley bottom.

Recent reports include numerous natural and skier triggered soft slab and loose snow avalanches up to size 1.5. These were typically from wind loaded slopes immediately lee of ridge crests. There is one new report of a size 2.5 avalanche that may have released on one of the deeper weak layers. This occurred on a steep northerly aspect in the alpine.

Up to 50 cm of low density new snow has fallen in the past few days. New wind slabs are likely in exposed lee and cross-loaded terrain in the alpine and at treeline. The new snow is also burying some older deeper wind slabs on northerly aspects in the alpine. Overall, the upper snowpack is reported to be settling well. The late November surface hoar, down 100-140 cm (between 1500 and 2000 m), is producing moderate to no results in snowpack tests. The early November crust, down 150-200 cm, has produced occasional sudden results in snowpack tests. Professionals are still cautious about these lingering persistent slab problems, but the likelihood of triggering continues to decrease as the overlying snowpack builds and continues to gain strength. Be wary of steep complex terrain with a shallow snowpack where triggering may be possible.