Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist, especially on wind-loaded slopes in the upper elevations. Significant amounts of snowfall and wind have buried weaker snow beneath 2+ feet of dense snow. Numerous large avalanches have occurred in this zone over the past storm cycle. Triggering an avalanche remains likely and can occur in wind-sheltered terrain as well as from gentler terrain above, below, and to the sides of steeper slopes. 

A large avalanche triggered by several parties on Mt. Taylor yesterday illustrates the seriousness of this hazard. Skier-triggered avalanche on Mt. Taylor

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Togwotee received 2 feet of snow between Thursday and Saturday. Last week's stormy weather brought nearly as much wind as snow, but the winds finally eased a bit yesterday and especially overnight. Yesterday while skiing at West Angle, I found dense drifts in the upper elevations. Wind slabs today will likely be smaller and less reactive to the weight of a skier or rider. But continue to watch for and avoid wind-drifted slopes, even in smaller terrain here (steep sides of drainages and creeks). It also pays to recognize that the wind slab problem is intertwined with the persistent slab problem. 

    Wind-loaded slopes will have even more weight on weaker layers, and wind-affected areas are likely to have variable snow depths and spots where you can more easily impact these layers. The best—and really only—way to manage this problem is by choosing lower-angled slopes. 

    (1/30/2023)

    Wind transport on Two Ocean building fresh wind slabs with plenty of snow available for transport. 

    Photo: Antonioli

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Weak snow exists throughout the base of the snowpack here. The recent and rapid loading of 1.35 inches of snow water equivalent has added a hefty slab into the equation at Togwotee. Additionally, weak layers may be more easily impacted by your weight at mid-elevations where the slab is thinner, or in rocky and/or wind-affected areas where there are shallower areas. Observations, since the storm ended, are still fairly limited, and there's a high level of uncertainty with the state of the snowpack in this zone. But one thing is for sure—you don't want to tangle with one of these avalanches. To reduce your risk, stick to lower slope angles and low-consequence terrain.

    (1/30/2023)

    Natural avalanche on a E aspect around 10,000 feet at Togwotee Pass. 

    Photo: Antonioli

Avalanche Discussion

Danger Lessons

The balance of evidence and uncertainty is at the forefront in backcountry decision-making processes. Fortunately, we have plenty of evidence pointing towards a sensitive problem that is widespread and capable of producing large and destructive avalanches. We know which flavor of avalanche to expect, and why. This should lessen uncertainty as to where it exists, and where it does not. 

We can slip into confidence all too easily, without a push in that direction, particularly days after recent snowfall or with colder temperatures. Contextualize all this evidence into your right here, right now decision-making: historic and rapid loading, recent human-triggered avalanche activity, fluxes in temperatures, and settling of new snow into hefty slabs. Choices in terrain should match this evidence, and not our personal history with an area, what someone else skied recently, or anything else that is prone to spring us into a human trap. Grasp the handle of evidence front and center in your context of making decisions on a slope-by-slope basis. The real question remains: Do we as individuals, and as a larger community that models behaviors to others, have the resolve to execute a danger/problem assessment every day, every slope, on our own dime? If not, we trend towards guessing-- a practice that does not lend itself well to repeatability. 

Regions covered