Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The most dangerous slopes exist between about 5,000 and 6,500 feet where fresh slabs rest above very problematic weak snow layers. Be aware of the lingering potential to remote trigger an avalanche from adjacent to or below steeper slopes due to buried surface hoar. Without those delicate feathers buried below, there were plenty of other forms of faceting to be concerned with. Winds have formed deeper, denser slabs above the tree line that may be more stubborn to fail, but avalanches on those slopes can break wider and be more difficult to escape. Don’t roll the dice and enjoy a fun day in the mountains by sticking to slopes around 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Fluctuating wind directions continues to drift the plethora of low-density snow onto leeward-facing slopes. For today, we expect drifting to be deeper and more widespread on north through east to south-facing slopes from an increase in westerly winds. Be careful as you transition into wind-affected terrain and avoid areas where the snow surface feels slabby. Cracking in the snow, loud whumpfing, or barley making an impression with your boards or machine means you’re likely on top of a harder slab of snow.

    Photo: Mikey Church

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    A layer of surface hoar buried at the end of January has been the most reactive where the overlying slab approaches two feet deep. In some places, these grains continue to fail in snowpack tests below slabs closer to three feet deep. Recent field observations suggest these grains are more widely preserved near the treeline and down to about 5,000 feet. In addition to buried surface hoar, a pile of weak (F to 4F) facets sits below across most northerly and easterly aspects, while a faceted crust looms below on more sunny and westerly aspects. Lesser snowpack settlement as a function of very cold temperatures over the next few days will prevent weak grains from breaking down and bonding anytime soon. 

    (2/6/2025)

    One of the culprit persistent weak grains underneath the storm slab - surface hoar. Before burial, these grains were almost 20 mm in size, they have been reduced to 10 to 15 mm and well-preserved in spots. West Cabinet Mountains. February 6, 2025.

    Photo: Chris Bilbrey

Avalanche Discussion

Recent observations indicate lingering sensitivity in the snowpack as cohesive slabs continue to stress weak, collapsible layers below. Natural and human-triggered avalanches, snowpack tests failing during isolation or with easy to moderate loading steps, and avalanches triggered remotely along with ongoing cracking and collapsing suggest the snowpack remains off balance. Most activity is occurring on a well-preserved, upright layer of surface hoar on northerly and easterly-facing slopes (feathers 15 to 25 mm in size) or around a faceted crust on southerly and west-facing slopes. Both of which reside atop a foot of large, faceted grains (0.5 to 1.5 mm in size).

Persistent weak layers tend to linger and given their fragility (mostly F to 4F-), we’re likely facing an extended period of elevated avalanche danger than what’s typical for this region. As the snowpack settles under its own weight, sensitivity to triggering may increase, or stiffening slabs may mask the lurking hazard. Snowmobilers may be at higher risk of triggering avalanches since their machines trench down and apply greater stress to deeper buried weak snow layers where skiers or riders tend to stay closer to the surface. The trick is trying to avoid shallow areas where the slab tapers or the overburden slab is thinner from more scouring. The hard part is knowing exactly where these places are now that surfaces look evenly distributed from afar.

If you choose to venture into the mountains, evaluate not just the terrain immediately around you but the proximity to steeper slopes you or your group travels near. With a mix of buried wind-affected layers, crust, surface hoar, and faceted snow, it’s safer to avoid slopes and convex rolls steeper than 30 degrees rather than trying to outsmart the lurking danger. Triggering a large avalanche from below remains a real possibility, so avoid traveling above terrain traps like gullies or depressions where steeper hazards loom overhead—especially in areas without a fast escape route.

Key Takeaways:

  • Avalanche conditions are complex and very slow to improve.
  • Stability tests should not be relied upon as definitive go/no-go indicators.
  • Avoid steep slopes and stick to terrain around 30 degrees or less.
  • Watch for red flags: fresh avalanches, cracking in the snow surface, and loud collapses.
  • The best approach for today? Play it safe—enjoy the soft riding and skiing conditions while steering clear of high-risk terrain.

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**We continue to receive intermittent reports of opening glide cracks and some failing naturally producing large to very large glide avalanches. Avoid traveling on or below slopes where a glide crack has opened. These types of avalanches are difficult to forecast when they will release.**

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