Avalanche forecast

Mt Hood

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Wind-drifted snow will be the most reactive to start the day. Ascend into mid and particularly upper-elevation terrain with caution, noting the enlarging cornices that point toward suspect lee slopes. Steer around these generally N and E-facing slopes where slabs rest above a potentially weaker layer of snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The most recent pulse of snow brought 6" of snow to the Mt Hood area Wednesday with an anticipated 1-3" of snow overnight bringing totals to the 7-9" range. Avalanche conditions on wind-loaded slopes may be touchy to start the day on Wednesday, but reactivity will gradually decrease. The exceedingly low-density snowfall doesn't have slab-like properties, leading to right-side-up snow profiles down to the January Drought Layer (JDL) crust. Therefore, if you find stiffer snow near the surface, it'll be thanks to the wind. Expect to find soft slabs at middle elevations and progressively firmer slabs where the winds have been moving significant amounts of snow at upper elevations. Ease into the terrain using quick hand shears or small test slopes to evaluate the slab development on wind-loaded aspects in your terrain. If you find a slab or a poor bond to the underlying crust, stick to ridges or lee slopes. At upper elevation, you're better off avoiding wind-loaded aspects and giving these larger slabs another day to heal. Recent slab development favors N and E aspects, the same aspects where you can expect a thinner JDL crust. It is in these areas that there remains a risk for wind slabs to steep down to the JDL crust and propagate more widely, resulting in a large avalanche. These setups are difficult to analyze in the field. To deal with this uncertainty, the best strategy remains to avoid wind-loaded slopes over 30 degrees on N and E aspects. 

    Cornices are growing large and overhanging at upper elevations. They are useful for pointing out wind-loaded slopes, but may also break off without and trigger large slabs. Give them respect from below and also on ridgelines where they have a reputation for breaking further back than you expect.

     

    Example: A large avalanche triggered in wind loaded terrain last Saturday. 

    Photo: MHM Pro Patrol

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    The low-density snow continues to stack up in the Mt Hood region with reported 20:1 snow to liquid ratios. This is the type of snow that runs fast with you as you get it moving on a slope approaching 40 degrees or steeper. Expect fan-shaped loose snow or entrainment directly downslope. You can manage the sluff by intentionally getting it moving before engaging with the slope or by moving out of the way of it. If you're not comfortable with these techniques, steer around steep rollovers, gully, or creek features where you might get into trouble. 

    (2/5/2025)

    Dry loose intentionally triggered "sluff" avalanche on a steep slope. 

    Photo: Ryan Matz

Avalanche Discussion

Since the storm cycle commenced, Mt. Hood Meadows weather station has picked up 2 feet of snow and 2.5 inches of snow water equivalent. The storm started warm, but recent waves of precipitation have been very cold and low-density. Riding conditions in more sheltered terrain are outstanding. 

On Tuesday, observers at lower elevations near Tom, Dick, and Harry found cracking of snow surfaces on E aspects around 5000 ft, suggesting the potential for isolated small wind slabs even at these elevations. The slabs generally fell apart and were stubborn with hand shears, suggesting that more cohesion is needed for the slab to become a problem in sheltered terrain. In this area, the observers found 6-12" of generally right-side-up snow above the JDL crust. Mt Hood Meadows Pro Patrol reported winds transporting significantly more snow at 7000 ft than at 6500 ft with snowfall rates picking up drastically during the afternoon.

On Tuesday, an observer traveling up the Palmer snowfield found plenty of relatively soft snow (4-finger hardness) still available to be transported once winds pick back up, even in upper-elevation terrain. 

While the snow remains exceptionally cold and lower density, it's not the typical snowpack that we've been dealing with this season. The January Drought Layer (JDL) is a crust with varying thicknesses that harbors a thick layer of facets just beneath and sometimes above. So far, observers have been finding this facet/crust combo to be most concerning on N-E aspects at middle elevations where the crust is thinner and more fragile. 

We haven’t observed any confirmed avalanches on this layer yet, but we have seen propagating test results  (observation/ observation) and whumping collapses on northerly aspects near Bennett Pass (observation). These types of observations hint at deeper instabilities and should help shape your terrain selection as you crest into more wind-loaded features on more shaded aspects. 

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