Avalanche forecast

Elkhorns

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Winds overnight or this morning could create dangerous wind-drifted snow at upper elevations.  February's 1-1.5' of snow sits on a foundation of weak old snow grains, creating a dangerous recipe for a persistent slab avalanche.  While natural avalanches are Unlikely, human-triggered avalanches are Possible on slopes greater than 30 degrees.  Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, identifying features of concern, especially trauma boosters like trees or burial intensifiers like gullies.  

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate winds (17-25mph) can deposit snow 3-5x deeper than what fell from the sky.  4" of new snow could become a 12-20" thick windslab.  Boots sinking down to the knee or thigh yesterday highlights how much snow is available for transport.  Seeing blowing snow is a sign to rein it in.  

    In all terrain, look for textured, rippled or unusually smooth surfaces, or snow that suddenly supports your skis, board or machine.  Feel or listen for hollow or drum-like sounds,  Avoid these features in avalanche terrain.  But take photos!

    Dry loose avalanches may be small today, but they could knock you off your feet or into somewhere you don't want to be.  

    (2/6/2025)

    E face of Lees, with circled wind effect from earlier in the week.  

    Photo: Wallowa Avalanche Center

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The thickness of the overlying slab varies from 1-1.5' (or more with wind loading). The persistent weak layer below can be summarized:

    • On shady and wind-sheltered northerly aspects, February's snow has not bonded well to the 10-12" of weak, sugary facets and/or surface hoar.  
    • On solar aspects, a buried melt-freeze crust may provide a slick bed surface and harbors weak sugary snow below it.  We have had one confirmation from the S Wallowas of a persistent slab triggering below the 1/31 melt-freeze crust.  

    With each day of snow or wind loading, the weak layer is stressed more.  There is uncertainty about when it reaches its tipping point on a particular slope and is reactive to a human trigger.  

    (2/6/2025)

    NW at 7600' (GPS lists it wrong in pit data).  ECTP13 down 45 on 1.5mm facets below the 1/31 crust. 

    Photo: Tom Whipple

Avalanche Discussion

A persistent slab needs two ingredients: a weak or soft layer below (the facets we've been finding and discussing for weeks) and a stronger or harder layer above (the new snow this week).   As the name suggests, the persisting layer will stick around and be slow to strengthen.  

What to do:   A persistent slab avalanche needs two more ingredients: a slope greater than 30 degrees to initiate, and a natural or human trigger.  With uncertainty about which slopes have the right combination of slab ingredients to be unstable enough, you can hedge your bets by choosing low-angle terrain or, at the least, inconsequential pieces of avalanche terrain. 

As always, be on the lookout for the freebie signs of unstable snow: recent natural avalanches, shooting cracks, and whumphing of the snowpack.   With a persistent slab problem, the absence of these clues does not mean that a slope is safe to ride, and careful evaluation should be used moving forward.   If you're not in avalanche terrain, you can't get caught in an avalanche.  

Observations: I traveled in Angell Basin yesterday and found unreactive soft windslabs above 7900' and a persistent slab structure on northerlies Near Treeline, but not Above Treeline.  

  Northern Wallowas and Southern Wallowas reports from Weds, Feb 5, highlight surface wind effect and concerning test results down 1.5' on a mid-storm layer and 2.5' down on the 1/31 crust.  A ski guide nearby also found similar concerning tests on the same two layers.  

Add value to your avalanche forecast.  Help us reduce uncertainty.   If you get out today, please submit an observation sharing where you traveled and if you saw avalanches or signs of instability.  

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