Avalanche forecast

Logan

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Highlights

The avalanche danger is MODERATE. Rapidly rising temperatures today will elevate avalanche conditions, and human-triggered wet avalanches are possible in sunny terrain and on slopes steeper than 30°. Although unlikely, in upper and mid-elevation terrain people might trigger dangerous avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer buried 3 to 4 feet deep.

Evaluate the snow and terrain carefully, and continue to practice safe travel protocols.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    3

    While the likelihood of triggering an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer is decreasing, the consequences of doing so are still significant. Large and dangerous avalanches failing on one of a few buried persistent weak layers remain possible, especially in areas with shallower snow and poor snow structure. The danger is most acute in upper-elevation terrain on rocky slopes with shallow snow cover facing northwest through southeast, but avalanches failing on a PWL are possible on slopes facing all directions.

    • People could trigger avalanches of previously wind-drifted snow that may then step down into deeper persistent weak layers.
    • You should stay away from and out from under deceptive ridge-top cornices, which often break further back than expected and can trigger avalanches on drifted slopes below.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Clear skies overnight helped to refreeze the saturated surface snow, but we expect sunny skies, and already warm mountain temperatures will climb during the day today, elevating the danger of wet avalanches. Loose wet avalanches are most likely in sunny terrain, especially near rock outcroppings and on slopes with shallow snow cover. More dangerous wet slab avalanches or heat-related slab avalanches failing on a buried PWL are possible on sunny slopes with poor snow structure. Southerly facing slopes at low elevations (<7000') are melted out or have only very shallow snow cover.

    • Roller balls, pinwheels, and natural sluffs are sure signs of instability.
    • If you start sinking into saturated snow, you should move off and stay out from under steep slopes.

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Recent Activity

  • We checked out a large natural avalanche in Hell Canyon in the Wellsville Range that occurred with the strong westerly winds on Tuesday. We think it was triggered by cornice fall, and that it failed on a buried PWL. We estimate the avalanche on an east-facing slope at 8400 feet was about 4 feet deep x 700 feet wide, running 2200'vrt. Report is HERE.
  • Monday afternoon, I could see a large natural avalanche on the south face of Beirdneau Peak. Report is HERE. I'm not sure if this was a wet slab avalanche, but it was likely caused by solar warming and perhaps heat shock.
  • A snowmobiler triggered an avalanche near the warming hut in Boss Canyon on Saturday that unfortunately injured a rider who was below the slope. The large hard slab avalanche failed on a buried persistent weak layer and was 4 to 5 feet deep and about 500 feet wide. Read the preliminary report HERE.

Read about all avalanches and observations HERE.

Snow and Weather

Sunny skies are expected today, and rapidly warming temperatures will quickly soften the crusty refrozen snow. We found smooth supportable snow and fast springlike conditions at low elevations yesterday. But up higher, we encountered a consistently inconsistent snow surface with breakable crusts both in the shade and in the sun. At upper elevations, we found very firm snow surface in most areas, but it was punchy in spots. We needed to have the scratchers down to keep the sled cool even off the groomed road.

Overnight temperatures were below freezing down low, but it was warmer up high. With the clear skies overnight, the snow surface is solidly refrozen, so it should stay hard for a while this morning, and you will find smooth and supportable "corn snow". I expect the snow surface in sunny terrain will soften considerably by afternoon, and you will probavbly start sinking through the surface crust.

Strong winds out of the west earlier in the week added more issues to an already complex avalanche situation. We saw impressive plumes of drifting snow coming off the spine of the Wellsville Range Tuesday afternoon. The drifting built out existing cornices and formed stiff wind slabs in lee slope avalanche starting zones as well as wind-board crusts of varying thicknesses and sastrugi in windward terrain. Wednesday, we checked out a huge and very impressive natural avalanche in Hell Canyon in the Wellsville Range, likely triggered by cornice fall during the wind event or Monday's rapid warming. This natural avalanche triggered by cornice fall on an east-facing slope, Monday's Beirdneau Ridge avalanche triggered by rapid warming on a southwest-facing slope, and Saturday's human-triggered Boss Canyon avalanche on a high east-northeast-facing slope failed on buried, persistent weak layers, highlighting the complexity of the avalanche problem.

-The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400 feet reports 35° F, with 91 inches of total snow. It's 32° F, at the Card Canyon weather station at 8800 feet, with 63 inches of total snow.

At 9700 feet at CSI's Logan Peak Wx station, winds are blowing 20 mph from the northwest, and it's already 34° F. On Paris Peak at 9500 feet, it's also 34° F, with winds blowing 20 to 25 mph from the west-northwest.

Mountain temperatures are rising quickly this morning. It's clear and we expect mostly sunny skies today, with mountain top high temperatures spiking around 42° F. Winds from the northwest will blow 3 to 6 mph. Tonight will be mostly clear with low temperatures around 27° F and winds from the north-northwest blowing 5 to 7 mph. Tomorrow will be sunny and even warmer, with 5 to 7 mph winds veering from the west in the afternoon and a high temperature around 45° F at 8500 feet. The strong high-pressure system, with warm temperatures and plenty of sunshine, is expected to last through the weekend. Snow is expected early next week, beginning late Sunday night or Monday morning.

For more information, visit the UAC weather page here: Weather - Utah Avalanche Center

For Logan-specific weather, go here: Logan Mountain Weather - Utah Avalanche Center

Additional Info

A large natural avalanche occurred on Tuesdsay in Hell Canyon in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness.

Here is the video we made about the 2/22 Boss Canyon Accident. Big thanks to all for sharing your photos and videos and for telling the terrifying story. We can all learn from this incident, and the lessons learned may well save lives.

General Announcements

-National Forest Winter Recreation Travel Maps show where it's open to ride: UWCNF Logan, Ogden LRD Tony Grove, Franklin Basin CTNF Montpelier

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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.

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