Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Considerable at all elevations.  Dangerous avalanche conditions exist.  Human triggered avalanches are likely 2-4 feet in depth.  Natural avalanches are possible.  Conservative terrain choices and cautious route finding will be essential for safe travel in avalanche terrain today.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Our area has received 12–18 inches of new snow since Monday, while the Continental zone has been drier, receiving about half that or less. Warming temperatures have built a top-heavy slab, increasing the sensitivity of the recent storm snow. Light rain is possible at low coastal elevations, which would further consolidate the new snow and may increase its reactivity.

    This new snow is resting on a widespread layer of large surface hoar (weak snow) that has been found up to 3000'. That would be a serious concern on its own, but the surface hoar is sitting on a rain crust, creating an especially effective sliding surface. This is the classic recipe for a persistent slab problem: a slab (recent storm snow), a weak layer (1/26 buried surface hoar), and a bed surface (1/15 rain crust)—the only thing missing is a trigger. A trigger could be a skier or snowmachiner traveling on—or below—slopes steeper than 30°. Because the crust and weak layer are widespread and well-connected, remote triggering is possible, meaning an avalanche could be triggered from a distance or from below.

    If triggered, avalanches may step down into December facets near the base of the snowpack, producing very large, destructive avalanches. These basal facets exist at all elevations, but they are generally more pronounced in the mid-elevation band, which also overlaps where the buried surface hoar is most prevalent. This combination makes mid elevations the most likely place to trigger an avalanche, even though the overall hazard is similar across elevation bands.

    Travel Advice: Avoid traveling on or below slopes steeper than 30°.

    Natural slab avalanche failing on buried surface hoar, on a small terrain feature.  

    Benzene Alley 1/27

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Weak snow exists near the base of the snowpack at all elevations, and new snow is adding additional stress to these weak layers. We continue to find the mid elevations have the weakest snow at the bottom of the snowpack (basal snow) with relatively low variability. Above 3500', weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack exists as well, but conditions are far more variable. At upper elevations, we’ve observed stronger snowpacks in sheltered terrain with moderate slope angles, while wind-exposed and steeper terrain remains thinner and more faceted. This variability at upper elevations will make assessment challenging. Be especially cautious near shallow, wind-scoured start zones and rocky features where a person may be able to “punch through” to weak snow.

    As described in Problem 1, the most likely way to activate our deep persistent weak layer is to trigger a persistent slab avalanche below 3500' that steps down into the basal facets. At upper elevations, trigger points may exist where the snowpack is thin—such as steep, rocky terrain and other wind-scoured areas.

    This problem is expected to be more sensitive and more likely in the Continental zone.

    Travel Advice: Avoid traveling on or below slopes steeper than 30° below 3500'. Above 3500', watch for storm slab problems—especially where the snow is wind affected. Avoid steep, rocky terrain today and maintain strong travel protocols: move one at a time through avalanche terrain, keep eyes on partners, and communicate clearly.

    (1/23/2026)

    Large connected natural hard slab avalanche associated with our deep persistent weak layer. Mt Dimond north face

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours: Natural avalanche observed in Benzene Alley at 1300'/ North N-R3-D1.5

Forecast Discussion

Recent new snow will be the main driver of instability today. Under more typical conditions, this would be framed as a storm slab problem—focused on wind-loaded features and using test slopes to gauge bonding. Today, we’ve chosen to identify it as a persistent slab problem because the new snow has accumulated on a widespread layer of large surface hoar resting on a rain crust, observed up to 3000'.

This setup is fairly unique for the Valdez area. Surface hoar forming directly on a rain crust is not common here, and the size of the surface hoar—up to 3 cm (normally a few millimeters)—is notable. Most importantly, the past week of clear weather was exceptionally calm, allowing surface hoar to develop widely below 3000' and become well preserved once buried. During a typical mid winter high pressure system, wind disrupts this weak layer in many locations, creating a patchier and more variable problem rather than a widespread one.

This problem will not heal quickly like a storm slab and may catch Valdez locals off guard. We are dealing with a persistent slab problem at low and mid elevations that extends into the Maritime zone.

At upper elevations, we’ve received enough new snow that human-triggered avalanches are likely, especially in wind-loaded terrain. In isolated trigger points, avalanches may step down into weak snow near the base of the snowpack and produce very large, destructive slides.  Expect remote triggers to be possible where the crust/weak layer is well connected.

 For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections. 

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