The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes near and above tree line that face NW-N-NE-E. The problems are two fold and human triggered avalanches involving both wind drifted snow, and avalanches stepping down into buried persistent weak layers are possible. You are most likely to encounter unstable slabs of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features above tree line.
Deeper and more dangerous avalanches involving a persistent weak layer are possible on these same aspects near tree line and above. The only way to avoid this problem is to avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees in these areas.
Conditions remain very thin, and hazards such as rocks and logs have just been thinly covered.
Avalanches involving wind drifted snow remain possible today. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep slopes above tree line that face NW-N-NE-E. Look for fresh deposits of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Wind drifted areas often have a smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
Poor snowpack structure exists on all slopes facing the north half of the compass. In these areas the entire snowpack is loose, weak, and faceted beneath the Christmas rain crust. In many areas, the rain crust does seem to be providing a barrier and the likelihood for triggering an avalanche is spotty. Stability tests are not producing propagation and other red flags such as collapsing and whumphing are not widespread but they are occurring. This makes it hard to tell where you are likely to trigger an avalanche and where you aren't. It largely depends on the strength and thickness of the rain crust in various locations. If you are into splitting hairs, the most likely areas to find trouble are right around tree line, in places where the rain crust is very thin. Personally, I'm just not willing to trust the strength of the crust with my life and I'll be avoiding northerly aspects steeper than 30 degrees for awhile.
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 5" Season Total Snow: 32" Depth at Gold Basin: 21"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: S 15-20 G 38 Temp: 28° F
Weather
Southwest flow brings warm air and gusty winds to the region. Winds blowing from the southwest will average 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph or higher along ridge tops. 10,000 foot temperatures will be near 30°F. We head into an unsettled pattern on Monday with a chance for an inch or two of snow. A colder air mass and potentially stronger system looms later in the week but details are scant and model runs this morning show chances weakening for our area.
General Conditions
Saying conditions were the best of the season yesterday isn't saying much but they actually were pretty darn good. All told we picked up 10 inches of snow at 2.3 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE) from the Thu-Fri storm event. It has settled into a dense cushion above the Christmas rain crust and skiing is fast and smooth with the best and safest turning and riding found on low angle slopes. Snow depths range from about 20 inches at 10,000 feet, to 3 feet or more at upper elevations.
Lots of folks were out and about skiing all aspects yesterday and we received some great observations. Several folks reported red flag signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing, and Chris Benson made it up high where he observed active wind transport as well as poor snowpack structure. He also de-rimed the Pre Laurel Peak wind station. Thanks Chris! Dave and I went in to Gold Basin where we found good turning as well as poor snowpack structure. More about that in Dave's observation and in the video below.
Snowpack and Weather Data
NEW! Gold Basin webcam storm stake
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
Geyser Pass Road Conditions: Many folks have made it up over the past couple of days and the recent snow has been packed down. It is slick, however, with sections of ice and mud down low and packed snow up high. The parking lot remains a good place to get stuck. 4x4 required.
Grooming: Grooming conditions have taken a hit over the last two days but the equipment is fixed and grooming will again commence this week.
Friday, January 30 - Saturday, January 31 - Moab Backcountry 101 Class - Our annual local backcountry avalanche class. Click here for information and registration. Moab and Monticello locals can use the discount code MOAB-LOCAL for a 10% discount.
