East Slopes South

It's unlikely, but there remains some chance that a large slab of wet snow could be triggered by you or cornice fall. Smaller chunks of snow still hanging around could fall from above, also. Terrain is your friend on Saturday; pay attention to where exposed cliffs and rocks could shed snow or be potential trigger points for a bigger slide.

We are closing in on a week since a warm, dry pattern began its unwelcome hovering over our region. Throughout this week, we have not gathered any snowpack data for the zone. As for other zones, we have seen significant variability in how the snowpack has responded to rain, warm temperatures, and sun. What we can surmise for the East South zone is that conditions are relatively safe. However, with such high uncertainty, it's very important you read on.

Big questions remain about whether any water is still within the snowpack. Although the zone was spared from rain last weekend, there are still buried crusts where meltwater could be pooling, creating instability. Other zones have seen very recent glide avalanches, indicating that water finally worked its way to the bottom of the snowpack. The fact that the East South zone had a more shallow snowpack to begin with could increase avalanche likelihood, or it could just mean slopes are melting out completely. Ultimately, wet slab and, less commonly, glide avalanches are poorly understood and notoriously unpredictable, even with the best snowpack data. 

So this is a low likelihood, high consequence situation, with uncertainty sprinkled on top. Rely on your terrain management skills and have good conversations with your group about risk tolerance. What does the terrain around you look like? Are there exposed rocks in the middle of the steep slope that could be potential trigger points? Are there terrain traps and other hazards below you that could turn a slide from bad to worse? Do you feel comfortable entering onto a big, steep slope in the first place where there is an unlikely chance of triggering an avalanche large enough to bury and kill you?

Based on data from other zones, surface crusts have become thick and supportable. Despite middle and upper elevation temperatures not dipping below freezing for multiple nights in a row, clear, cloud-free conditions have allowed a lot of radiational cooling. These crusts have built up enough that they no longer break down much during the day, preventing wet loose avalanche activity. There are still lingering globs of snow on rocks and cliffs that could still fall down, however. Keep your head up and don't linger under these features or drooping cornices either.

Travel at lower elevations is...rough. Icy snow, open creeks, rocks, and logs are all obstacles to navigate. Some slopes now lack snow altogether, especially in the East South. Plan for tricky travel and give yourself extra time to navigate.

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