Avalanche forecast

Mt Hood

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

A major winter storm will develop very dangerous avalanche conditions Monday night into Tuesday morning. Very large natural avalanches could occur. Don’t try to tip-toe around this one. Stay away from places where avalanches start, run, and stop, particularly at middle and upper elevations.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Very strong to extreme winds will rake Mt Hood through Tuesday evening, affecting nearly all slopes. Large erratic wind features should form throughout the terrain. Unless the slope is stripped bare, consider it wind-loaded. 

    Additional snow and continued winds will likely cause natural avalanches during the day. Some of these could be very large and destructive. 

    Given the extremely stormy nature of Tuesday’s hazard, choose a simple solution, stay off of and out from under steep slopes. This should include the major canyon bottoms.

    (1/6/2024)

    Hard slab debris from a human triggered avalanche on Pea Gravel Ridge. 

    Photo: Jack Kuenzle

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Just because you’re out of the wind doesn’t mean you’re out of the hazard. Remotely triggered avalanches and rumbling whumpfs occurred this weekend. You could see avalanches fail within the new snow or step down to older weak layers. Even if these avalanches are slightly less likely, they still deserve your attention. Avoid steep open, sheltered slopes. 

    At lower elevations, rain Monday night should help confine the danger to the new snow. However, as the snow stacks up, you could trigger storm slabs in open terrain.

    This storm slab was remotely triggered over the weekend. (1/7/2024) Photo: Kyle Wyatt

Avalanche Discussion

This is a doozy of a storm! In some ways, it’s simple: heavy precipitation + extreme winds + fluctuating snow levels + known weaklayers = scary! The peak of the natural avalanche cycle could occur Monday night as rain reaches into the middle elevation bands. By sunrise, temperatures should be cooling, which will help. However, an ongoing raging storm will maintain a higher likelihood of natural avalanches. This could include some much bigger slides descending from higher on the mountain into the major canyons. 

Given the winds and snow, it’s easy to focus on the higher elevation terrain, but many of the recent incidents occurred in the middle and even lower elevations. Parties this week remotely triggered avalanches up to size D2.5 and other groups reported whumpfs. Two prominent potential weak layers exist in the upper snowpack that are suspected in these events. The 1/4 and 12/30 crusts both have potential weak snow above them. If avalanches fail on these layers, they could wrap terrain features. Surely, this storm will put these persistent weak layers to the test.

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