Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

This major storm tapers off overnight, but expect dangerous avalanche conditions to linger. You could easily trigger an avalanche 2-4ft deep that breaks widely across terrain features. Stick to low-angle terrain sheltered from the wind to avoid triggering one of these large avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    The recently buried weak layers are still not to be trusted, and you could easily trigger a large, widely propagating avalanche. You may even see a few new natural avalanches on Wednesday. With extreme winds and up to 2ft of new snow in some areas, avalanches could be up to 4ft deep. We expect the most potential for sensitive, very large avalanches in areas where the winds formed thicker wind slabs at mid and upper elevations. You can avoid triggering one of these dangerous avalanches by choosing low-angle slopes sheltered from the wind. At lower elevations with a thinner snowpack, avalanches might be smaller, but they would carry high consequences if you are dragged through terrain still riddled with rocks, stumps, creeks, and other terrain traps.

    Look for signs of instability, such as collapsing, cracks that shoot away from you, and recent avalanches. These are all indications that you are likely to trigger an avalanche. Be particularly leery of steep wind-loaded slopes. You can use visual clues like textured surfaces, drifts around rocks/trees, and cornice formations to identify wind-drifted snow. 

    (1/7/2024)

    A skier triggered and took a short ride in this avalanche that failed on buried surface hoar (1/2) in the Teanaway Drainage on Sunday. 

    Photo: Rob Pollard

Avalanche Discussion

We are on the tail end of an impressive storm that brought 1-3ft of snow and extreme winds to the Cascades. Winds averaged 30-40mph, with a max gust of 112mph at Mission Ridge! Expect some additional light snow accumulations and strong winds overnight, decreasing during the day on Wednesday. This pattern will continue to load the weak snowpack, maintaining dangerous avalanche conditions.  

The upper mountain stayed closed, but Mission Ridge Ski Patrol triggered multiple wind slabs with explosives at mid-mountain. One of these avalanches released on weak, faceted snow above the Solstice Crust. An NWAC forecaster in that area also observed sensitive wind slabs and unstable, propagating test results on the Solstice Crust.  

We don't have much information on the extent of the natural avalanche cycle from Tuesday, but we suspect it was widespread. Before the storm, backcountry travelers in the Blewett Pass area had a close call with a triggered avalanche that broke 1-2 ft deep and propagated widely. This large avalanche occurred on an NE aspect at 6000 ft in a wind-loaded area. Near Fortune Creek drainage, we observed a large, widely propagating avalanche on a solar aspect at 6800 ft. Two other human-triggered avalanches occurred in the Teanaway and Salmon La Sac drainages, around 6000ft, and likely involved the 1/2 surface hoar layer. These layers are now buried deeply, and until we have more information about their reactivity, extra caution and wide margins of safety are warranted. We also can't rule out avalanches in the new storm snow stepping down to these deeper weak layers. 

Lower elevations likely have significantly better coverage after Tuesday's storm, but the coverage is still below average. These elevations may not quite meet the threshold for large avalanches. However, you could still trigger a smaller avalanche with serious consequences from hitting exposed hazards like rocks, stumps, or downed trees. 

If you get out, let us know what you see by submitting a public observation!

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